What drove NVIDIA over the last 90 days

Q4 FY26 earnings: the best quarter that wasn't enough (Feb 25–26)

Nvidia delivered what analysts called the "largest, cleanest beat ever" — revenue of $68.1B (+73% YoY) vs. the $65.9B estimate, EPS of $1.62 vs. $1.54, and Q1 FY27 guidance of $78B vs. $72.78B consensus. Data center revenue reached $62.3B; networking surged 263% to $10.98B, far above the $9.02B estimate.

The stock briefly rallied after-hours, then fell 5.5% the next session — erasing $259B in market value. The signal was structural: investors had fully priced in a massive beat, leaving no room for upside surprise. Revenue concentration among just eight hyperscaler customers, Michael Burry's Cisco bubble comparison, and questions about $700B AI capex ROI killed the rally. However, retail investors bought the dip in record volume — setting up the recovery into March. Analyst consensus pushed price targets higher (JPMorgan to $265, BofA to $300, Citi to $300), underwriting the eventual bounce.

U.S.-Iran military conflict: the macro headwind nobody saw coming (Mar 2–Apr 17)

This was the dominant force suppressing Nvidia and the entire tech sector from early March through mid-April. The sequence: U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran (Mar 2) sent the Dow down 500 points; Brent crude surged above $100 (peaking at $119 in some sources) after Iran ordered the Strait of Hormuz closed; the S&P 500 posted three consecutive weekly losses; and Iran's Revolutionary Guard directly named Nvidia among 18 U.S. tech companies as "legitimate targets." Over $2T was erased from U.S. stock valuations during the conflict's peak.

NVDA fell from ~$183 to a trough of $165.17 by March 30 — a roughly 10% decline on geopolitical risk that had nothing to do with AI fundamentals. The recovery was equally macro-driven: Trump signaled Iran progress (Mar 23), the Dow gained 1,000 points, and NVDA bounced 1.76%. Iran's full Hormuz reopening (Apr 17) sent crude oil down 9% in a single day, and the Nasdaq launched its longest winning streak since 2009 — 13 consecutive days — with NVDA the prime beneficiary.

GTC 2026 conference: massive vision, muted market reaction (Mar 16–17)

Jensen Huang's keynote doubled Nvidia's revenue visibility to at least $1T through 2027 (from a prior $500B forecast), attributed 60% of demand to hyperscalers, and unveiled the Vera Rubin platform with seven new chips, the NemoClaw agentic AI stack, the Dynamo 1.0 inference operating system, and a Space-1 platform for orbital AI. He confirmed China H200 manufacturing had restarted with purchase orders in hand, and announced Uber robotaxi partnerships across 28 cities.

Despite this, the stock's reaction was muted — rising only 2–4.7% and then giving back gains. The market had been waiting for specifics on inference demand monetization and China, and while GTC delivered vision, it did not provide new quarterly guidance or earnings catalysts. However, GTC seeded the analyst community with bullish price target revisions (Rosenblatt to $325, Truist to $287) that were then validated by subsequent deal flow.

Ecosystem deal spree: supply chain dominance signals (Mar–May)

Nvidia deployed an estimated $18B+ in strategic investments over the 90-day window, each serving as both financial signal and moat reinforcement. Analysts characterized this as "circular financing" (Nvidia invests in customers who buy its chips) but interpreted it as confidence in demand durability and control of the full stack. The Marvell and Corning deals specifically addressed a shifting AI infrastructure narrative — proving the AI trade was expanding beyond GPUs into networking, optical connectivity, and memory, all of which Nvidia was anchoring.

• Mar 10 Thinking Machines Lab — 1GW compute deal with Mira Murati's startup; multi-year chip supply Ecosystem
• Mar 11 Nebius Group — $2B investment; 5GW AI cloud infrastructure deployment by 2030 +10–16%↑ NEBIUS
• Mar 31 Marvell Technology — $2B investment, NVLink Fusion AI infrastructure partnership +5.6% NVDA
• May 6 Corning — $500M optical fiber manufacturing deal; 10× U.S. capacity expansion +5.5% NVDA
• May 7 IREN — $3.4B AI cloud contract + $2.1B equity option; 5GW deployment pipeline +7%↑ IREN

Historic AI market rally, Intel catalyst (Apr 17–May 8)

Intel's Q1 2026 earnings surge of 26% — the largest single-day gain since 1987 — paradoxically boosted Nvidia. The read-through: AI demand was expanding to CPUs and system-level inference, not substituting GPUs. NVDA added +4.3% on Apr 24, crossing $5T in market cap and closing at a record high. The semiconductor ETF gained 40% in April — its strongest month since February 2000.

The Cerebras IPO (May 14) further validated AI chip demand, with shares opening at nearly double the IPO price in a $5.55B deal. TSMC's strong April sales (released May 8) provided another read-through on healthy Blackwell production. By May 14 — the day H200 China approvals were announced — the S&P 500 crossed 7,500 for the first time and the Dow crossed 50,000.

China trade policy: the most volatile and unresolved factor (throughout)

China export controls were the single most event-driven price vector over the 90 days, producing the largest intraday moves in both directions.

The trajectory: Nvidia disclosed zero H200 chips sold to China as of Feb 25 earnings; at GTC (Mar 16), Huang confirmed Chinese firms had received regulatory approval and orders were resuming; China authorities formally cleared multiple firms around the same time. Then on May 14, the Commerce Department formally approved up to 75,000 H200 chips each to Alibaba, Tencent, ByteDance, and JD.com. The stock hit its all-time high of $236.54.

Today (May 15), the Trump-Xi summit concluded without any concrete purchasing agreements. Trump said China "chose not to" buy despite approvals and is pursuing domestic alternatives via Huawei. NVDA fell 4.42%, erasing $170B in market cap. Analysts estimate China could represent $26B in potential annual revenue. The path forward remains uncertain given Huawei's domestic AI chip progress. Complicating matters: Trump disclosed purchasing $1–5M of Nvidia stock on Jan 6 — one week before the H200 China approvals.

Structural signals to watch

Earnings on May 20 (Q1 FY27) are the next binary event. Wall Street expects ~$78B in quarterly revenue. TD Cowen raised its target to $275; Cantor to $350; Goldman reiterated a Conviction Buy with a $1,450 target. The stock currently trades 17% above its 50-day MA ($193.07) and 21% above its 200-day MA ($185.97) — technically extended. P/E of 46x against an A− analyst rating (Buy consensus) with Strong Buy scores on ROE and ROA, but a "Strong Sell" on P/B.

The pattern over 90 days has been consistent: blowout fundamentals plus macro and geopolitical noise, with China trade policy as the most powerful and least predictable swing variable.