Abdul El-Sayed Surges to 74% on Polymarket as 2026 Midterms Near and Alaska Senate Race Erupts in Spoiler Controversy

With four days until the 2026 midterm elections, prediction market Polymarket pushed Democratic Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed to an all-time high of 74% probability of winning, underscoring how Democrats are eyeing the seat held by Republican Mike Rogers as a potential pickup. El-Sayed, a former public health official who won a bruising Democratic primary, has drawn attacks from Trump and Vice President Vance as a radical, but his odds have climbed sharply in recent days.

The Alaska Senate race is generating its own turbulence heading into Tuesday, after the National Republican Senatorial Committee expanded a Federal Election Commission complaint to include incumbent Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola, her campaign, and the DSCC. The complaint alleges that a same-named spoiler candidate, Dan Sullivan Jr., was the product of a months-long scheme orchestrated by Peltola's campaign and financed by multiple super PACs, a claim the NRSC says is supported by a New York Times investigation. Alaska's Republican governor separately ordered a state-level investigation into the alleged effort. The Trump administration also filed suit to block certification of the race's results if the GOP's Sen. Dan Sullivan loses.

Broader dynamics heading into Election Day show Republicans navigating unusual headwinds. Farmers and rural Americans, traditionally reliable GOP voters, are expressing dissatisfaction with President Trump in a pattern Reuters reporters describe as uncommon. Trump has focused his travel on safe Republican strongholds such as South Carolina rather than competitive battlegrounds. Democrats, led by Congressional Campaign Committee Chair Suzan DelBene, see Tuesday as their best opportunity in years to reclaim ground with key demographics, according to analyst Ron Brownstein. Control of the House majority is at stake, and Republican members are already privately mapping out internal party leadership races that would follow significant losses.