ADM Beats Q3 Earnings Estimates and Raises Full-Year 2026 Guidance on Biofuels Boost

Archer-Daniels-Midland reported third-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings per share of $1.77, topping the analyst consensus of $1.60 by roughly 11% and marking a 92% increase year over year. Revenue came in at $22.34 billion, a 10% gain from the prior-year quarter, though it fell short of some estimates that ranged as high as $22.51 billion. GAAP EPS reached $1.70, a dramatic 673% jump compared to the $0.22 posted in Q3 2025. CEO Juan Luciano credited strong oilseed processing margins and favorable U.S. biofuels policy as key drivers of the quarter's performance.

Total segment operating profit rose 64% year over year to $1.38 billion. The Carbohydrate Solutions segment was the standout, delivering $470 million in operating profit against an estimate of $382.7 million, a 40% year-over-year increase. The Agricultural Services and Oilseeds segment posted $778 million, up 105% year over year but below the $868.9 million estimate. Nutrition contributed $134 million, a modest 3% gain and a miss versus the $150.3 million consensus.

Building on the quarterly results, ADM raised its full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to a range of $5.50 to $5.80, up from the prior range of $5.15 to $5.60, landing just above the $5.53 analyst estimate. The company also trimmed its capital expenditure outlook to $1.2 billion to $1.3 billion from $1.3 billion to $1.5 billion. Despite the guidance lift, ADM shares fell on the session, underperforming peers, with the revenue miss and segment-level shortfalls in oilseeds and nutrition weighing on sentiment. At least one analyst firm upgraded the stock to Strong Buy following the post-earnings pullback, citing an attractive below-market price-to-earnings ratio, a consistent dividend history, and long-term exposure to rising agricultural commodity prices, with a price target of $78.