ASML Posts Record Q3 Profit and Raises Full-Year Outlook for Third Time as AI Demand Set to Outstrip Supply Through 2028

ASML Holding reported record third-quarter results on October 14, with net sales of 11.66 billion euros, up 55% year-over-year, and net income of 4.96 billion euros, a 133% jump from the same period a year earlier. Basic earnings per share came in at 12.95 euros, well ahead of analyst consensus estimates of around 10.70 to 10.84 euros, while gross margin expanded to 57.5% against an estimate of 54.8%. The ADR equivalent EPS was $14.65 versus an estimate of $12.13.

ASML raised the floor of its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to a range of 44 billion to 45 billion euros, above the prior consensus estimate of 43.65 billion euros, marking the third consecutive quarter the company has upgraded its outlook. Fourth-quarter revenue guidance of 14.2 billion to 15.2 billion euros also came in above the roughly 13.8 billion euro analyst estimate, with an expected gross margin of approximately 57%.

The most striking forward-looking signal came from CEO Christophe Fouquet, who said customers are asking ASML for tools "every single day" and that chipmakers are already expressing interest in placing orders for 2029 and 2030. ASML said its planned supply for both 2027 and 2028 will not fully meet customer demand driven by AI infrastructure investment, and the company said it is investigating ways to increase 2028 capacity beyond the 30% expansion it had previously communicated.

On the technology roadmap, Fouquet said ASML's next-generation High-NA EUV lithography systems are approaching high-volume manufacturing after more than a decade of development. Samsung plans to begin using High-NA EUV in mass production in 2028, TSMC is targeting around 2030, and Intel is already increasing the number of layers and wafer output processed with the technology. ASML also plans to introduce its NXE:3800F EUV system in 2027, raising throughput from 230 to 260 wafers per hour, with the capacity benefit expected to be felt most strongly from 2028 onward.

During the quarter ASML executed approximately 4.1 billion euros in share buybacks and declared an interim dividend of 1.88 euros per share, payable November 4, 2026, supported by cash and short-term investments of 12.74 billion euros. Despite the beat and raised guidance, shares initially fell roughly 3% in European pre-market trading on valuation concerns before recovering. The pan-European STOXX 600 index gained 0.32% as the broader technology sector was lifted by ASML's demand outlook.