Bank of America Raises Brent Crude Forecast to $95 and Warns of $150 Oil if Iran War Drags On

Bank of America raised its second-half 2026 Brent crude forecast to $95 per barrel from $83, citing persistent Middle East tensions as the primary driver, and warned that front-month prices could spike above $150 if supply disruptions tied to the Iran war extend into spring 2027. Commodity strategist Francisco Blanch told CNBC the bank's central Brent target sits around $100 a barrel. The bank noted that Hormuz throughput remains 4 to 8 million barrels per day below pre-war levels despite alternative routes and escorted shipments, and that the disruptions would need to ease materially before the bank's longer-run $80 average forecast for 2027 comes into view. Benzinga reported the bank's view that it may take $150 oil to actually break the broader economy.

The oil call was the sharpest market signal from a busy day of Bank of America-hosted events. The bank's 31st Annual Financials CEO Conference drew presentations from Société Générale, UBS, Lloyds Banking Group and BBVA, while its Global Healthcare Conference featured Sanofi, Elanco, Genmab, Roivant Sciences and Bruker. Separately, Bank of America said European utilities earnings stand to benefit from higher-for-longer natural gas prices on the continent, as a basket of European utilities stocks rose.

On the research side, Bank of America upgraded Eldorado Gold to Buy and raised its price target by 71% to $54, citing de-risking progress at the Skouries copper-gold project in Greece following site visits. The bank also upgraded Candel Therapeutics to Buy with an $18 price target. In a separate note, BofA Securities flagged that China's new rule targeting income tax on offshore trusts, a structure widely used by shareholders of Hong Kong- and US-listed Chinese companies, could create short-term selling pressure in certain shares as payment deadlines approach.

Bank of America also joined Capital One, NatWest and ING in warning that AI shopping agents raise elevated risks of scams, fraud and data-privacy breaches, with the coalition calling for mandatory disclosure whenever an agent is involved in a transaction and planning to bring the proposals to policymakers. BAC shares slipped in Tuesday trading alongside declines in JPMorgan Chase, which fell 3% despite announcing a $20 billion partnership with the Qatar Investment Authority, and Goldman Sachs.