Brent Crude Surges Past $100 After Chinese Refiners Suspend October Fuel Exports

Brent crude oil climbed back above $100 a barrel on October 1, rising 4.6% by late afternoon trading, after Reuters reported that Chinese refiners suspended all fuel exports for October to protect domestic supplies ahead of the Golden Week holiday period. WTI futures also gained, up 2.8%, with oil prices jumping roughly $3 in the initial reaction before extending those gains further as the session progressed.

The China export suspension was the dominant catalyst, but additional pressures reinforced the move. Security incidents in the Strait of Hormuz added a supply-risk premium, while Vitol raised its bid for WTI Midland crude to Dated Brent plus $19.40 for mid-October delivery, signaling tight physical market conditions. North Sea crude flows rose in September to their highest level since April, though that supply increase was insufficient to offset the demand-side shock from the China news.

Refining stocks surged sharply on expectations that tighter fuel supply would widen crack spreads. Marathon Petroleum rose 5% to $413.75, while Valero Energy gained 4%, both outperforming integrated majors such as Exxon Mobil, which was flat on the session. The U.S. national average gasoline price stood at $4.39 per gallon, down about 10 cents from the prior week, but analysts warned that rising wholesale prices could quickly reverse that consumer relief.

On the supply side, Brazil reported record oil production of 4.615 million barrels per day in August, up 2.6% month over month and 18.5% year over year, according to regulator ANP. Venezuelan oil exports to the United States also rose in September to 629,000 barrels per day. Saudi Arabia was simultaneously loading 11 tankers from multiple terminals, which analysts suggested could indicate rising domestic production and increased East-West pipeline flows, though the sustainability of that pace remains uncertain.