Trump Dismisses Iran Deal as Tanker Attacks Multiply in Gulf, Sending Brent Above $94

Oil markets swung sharply on November 12 after President Donald Trump declared the United States does not need a deal with Iran, erasing earlier losses and pushing Brent crude up more than 1% from roughly $92 to above $94 a barrel. The comment came as Iran's senior security officials insisted that Washington must accept seven conditions before any negotiations can begin, a stance Secretary of State Marco Rubio called unacceptable. The standoff cemented a "no war, no peace" dynamic that analysts say keeps escalation risk elevated even as physical supply has partially recovered.

Shipping incidents multiplied across the region. A tanker was struck by an unidentified projectile while traveling eastbound in the Arabian Gulf on November 10, causing multiple casualties who were evacuated ashore, with remaining crew safe. A separate tanker was hit in its engine room 14 nautical miles northwest of Ras Al Khaymah, UAE, on November 11, with no casualties and crew evacuated as firefighting continued. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps then reported that two tankers were disabled by naval mines while transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Oman separately convened its National Emergency Management Committee on November 12 to handle an oil tanker that ran aground off Al Qibliyah Island near the Strait of Hormuz, though the vessel was not identified. UAE authorities in Ras Al Khaimah and Sharjah reopened beaches that had been closed after an earlier tanker spill, saying marine pollution was under control.

Yemen's Houthis claimed fresh strikes deep inside Saudi Arabia, targeting an international airport, an oil pumping station, and troop positions with missiles and drones, while Saudi Arabia was reported to be expanding its Chinese-designed ballistic missile arsenal in response to the sustained barrage. Ukraine separately attacked Russia's largest oil refinery in western Siberia for a third time, intensifying its campaign against Russian crude-processing capacity even as US-mediated peace talks continued.

Despite the geopolitical premium, supply-side data complicated the picture. Energy Aspects reported that global crude stocks built by 38 million barrels in October, though the gain sat largely in floating storage rather than onshore tanks. An early-October build in Asia reversed sharply, with a draw of nearly 20 million barrels in the two weeks to November 5, more than half of it in India. India was also reported to be boosting Gulf oil imports as Russian crude lost its price advantage. The EIA raised its Brent spot price forecasts for both 2026 and 2027 in its latest short-term energy outlook.

At the retail level, US gasoline prices fell sharply. GasBuddy recorded a single-day drop of 6.2 cents per gallon, the third largest in the firm's 26-year history, following what was described as the largest one-day retail gasoline price decline in 18 years the previous session. Gasoline futures had by that point fallen for eight consecutive weeks, losing 26.3% over that stretch, the worst run since the third quarter of 2022. The national average stood at $3.91 per gallon according to AAA data cited on November 12. Analysts noted that if wholesale prices held, retail gasoline could reach an eight-month low by Thanksgiving weekend.