Carnival Surges 12% After Record Q3 Revenue and Raised Full-Year Guidance

Carnival Corporation posted record third-quarter results that beat Wall Street estimates on every major metric, sending its shares up as much as 14% to around $25 on Tuesday. Revenue rose to $8.44 billion against analyst expectations of $8.3 billion, while adjusted earnings per share came in at $1.43 versus the $1.36 consensus. Net income reached an all-time high of $1.92 billion, or $1.40 per share, up from $1.85 billion, or $1.33 per share, a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA of $3.0 billion topped the $2.93 billion estimate, and occupancy hit 111.8%.

The company raised its full-year adjusted net income guidance to approximately $3.1 billion, above the $3.05 billion analyst estimate, and lifted its full-year adjusted EPS outlook to roughly $2.24 from the prior $2.21 consensus. Full-year net yields in constant currency are now expected to grow 2.3%, and full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance stands at approximately $7.1 billion. Management pointed to record occupancy and pricing for 2027 bookings as a key indicator of sustained demand, with customer deposits sitting at $7.6 billion.

Q4 guidance disappointed relative to expectations: adjusted net income is projected at roughly $274 million against estimates of $352 million, and adjusted EPS of approximately $0.20 fell short of the $0.25 consensus, though adjusted EBITDA guidance of $1.3 billion was roughly in line. Net yields in constant currency for Q4 are guided at plus 1.7%.

The balance sheet also showed progress. Carnival redeemed $500 million of seven percent coupon notes during the quarter and paid $204 million in dividends. S&P upgraded Carnival to investment grade status, a milestone CFO David Bernstein has prioritized as the company works to reduce its debt load and refinance at lower rates. The strong results lifted the broader cruise sector, with Royal Caribbean gaining approximately 7% and Norwegian rising around 5%.