Cleveland-Cliffs Posts Strongest Quarter in Three Years and Forecasts 2027 Adjusted EBITDA Above $4 Billion

Cleveland-Cliffs delivered its best quarterly performance in three years, reporting Q3 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $612 million, ahead of both its own $575 million guidance and the Wall Street consensus of roughly $593 to $601 million, and up sharply from $143 million in the year-ago period. Revenue rose 19% year over year to $5.61 billion, though that fell about $110 million short of analyst expectations. The company swung to a GAAP net income of $165 million, or $0.26 per diluted share, compared with a loss of $234 million, or $0.51 per share, in the same quarter last year. Adjusted EPS of $0.28 beat the consensus estimate of around $0.24.

Higher steel prices and improved volumes drove the results. Average selling price reached $1,177 per ton, up 14% from $1,032 a year earlier, while steel shipments totaled 4.15 million net tons, a 3% increase year over year but slightly below the 4.28 million ton estimate. Steelmaking revenue of $5.45 billion accounted for 97% of total sales, and gross margin in that segment reached $454 million, compared with a $56 million loss in the prior-year quarter.

For the fourth quarter, management guided to approximately $715 million in adjusted EBITDA, roughly $103 million above the Q3 result and well ahead of the analyst estimate of around $632 to $665 million. More significantly, CEO Lourenco Goncalves said the company expects full-year 2027 adjusted EBITDA to exceed $4 billion, citing new client contracts already signed and prevailing index price forecasts, with steel tariffs named as a key supporting factor.

Shares surged as much as 15% to 16% during the session, making CLF one of the largest premarket movers on October 19. Peers Nucor and Steel Dynamics edged modestly higher in sympathy. The company reported liquidity of $3.2 billion as of September 30 and operating cash flow of $224 million for the quarter. On the Canadian operations front, Goncalves announced that Stelco galvanizing lines have been indefinitely idled, while approximately 2,000 Canadian jobs are being preserved; the CEO publicly attributed the layoffs to Canadian government policy rather than company decisions.