Democrats Hold 67% Senate Odds on Polymarket as Voter Turnout Surges and Mississippi Goes Competitive

With the 2026 midterm elections in their final stretch, prediction market Polymarket has Democrats at 67% odds to win Senate control versus 34% for Republicans, reflecting a broad set of favorable indicators for the party. More than 12.6 million Americans have already cast early ballots, and an AP analysis found voter turnout is soaring in many of the states expected to decide Senate control, a pattern that historically advantages higher-enthusiasm parties.

A new New York Times poll showed a strong House outlook for Democrats, though the survey included some warning signs for the party. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to flip the Senate, and their reach has extended into traditionally safe Republican territory, with the race in deep-red Mississippi drawing national attention. Trump is planning a rally to boost the GOP candidate there, while the Senate Majority PAC launched an ad campaign in the state backing Democrat Scott Colom.

On a separate front with midterm implications, the Trump administration announced it will loan 315,000 barrels from the Northeast heating oil diesel reserve to combat surging fuel prices ahead of the election. The reserve, held in commercial storage facilities across the Northeast, has previously been tapped only after major emergencies such as Hurricane Sandy in 2012.

Also breaking near the same time, Elon Musk said during SpaceX's third-quarter earnings call that a merger between SpaceX and Tesla would be a good idea, with both companies having formed special committees to study a deal. A report indicated the transaction is intended to close before the end of Trump's current term.