European Benchmark Gas Price Crosses EUR 100 Per MWh for First Time Since December 2022 Energy Crisis

The European benchmark natural gas price, measured by the TTF futures contract traded in Amsterdam, crossed EUR 100 per megawatt-hour on October 28, marking the first time that threshold has been breached since the peak of the 2022 energy crisis triggered by the cutoff of Russian pipeline gas.

The move extends a sharp rally that has been building throughout October. Since the start of the month, prices had already risen by roughly one-third, and since the start of 2026 they have more than tripled. Just two days earlier, on October 26, TTF was trading near EUR 97 per MWh, itself a multi-year high. The speed of the ascent reflects mounting concern over the continent's fragile supply position heading into winter.

Two forces are driving the surge. Middle East tensions have severely curtailed Qatari LNG flows, removing a key supply source that European buyers depend on during the heating season. At the same time, EU gas storage sites entered the winter draw-down period roughly 10 percentage points below their five-year average fill rate, around 75 percent, leaving the market with a thin buffer. ING commodities strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey warned that LNG flows from the Gulf were likely to remain largely absent for much of the Northern Hemisphere winter, keeping the market highly sensitive to any further escalation in the region.

The price surge is feeding through directly to consumers and industry. In the German state of Baden-Wurttemberg, household gas prices rose 22 percent over the past 12 months, according to the comparison portal Verivox. Analysts warn that if temperatures drop sharply across the continent in the coming weeks, Europe could face bidding wars with Asian buyers for scarce LNG cargoes, risking a repeat of the supply stress seen in late 2022.