Goldman Sachs Flags AI Compute Oversupply Risk as Its Own Desks Signal Internal Tension

Goldman Sachs found itself at the center of a notable internal contradiction on September 3, as its research arm and its trading desks delivered conflicting signals on artificial intelligence investments. Analyst Jim Schneider reiterated a Buy rating on Broadcom, citing management guidance for AI semiconductor revenue to double to $115 billion in fiscal year 2027 and double again to $230 billion in fiscal year 2028, with Anthropic named as Broadcom's largest FY27 customer and OpenAI and Meta described as material in FY28. The note explicitly addressed the two principal bear arguments against Broadcom: Google customer concentration and margin dilution.

Running counter to that bullish research call, Goldman's Delta One desk flagged the Silicon Data token index down 29% in August alone, warning that falling cost-per-token means more demand paired with lower prices is not automatically positive for equities if pricing falls faster than consumption grows. The desk argued that periods of compute oversupply are becoming plausible, and that inference workloads shifting toward cheaper local hardware undercuts per-token pricing as a durable end-state model. Goldman's Prime brokerage desk confirmed "a material decline in positioning related to AI capex beneficiaries," while the firm's vol desk reported its Semiconductor Long Vol strategy lost 782 basis points in August and its Mag7 Long Vol strategy lost 314 basis points as single-name dispersion spiked.

Beyond the AI debate, Goldman maintained active coverage across several other areas. The firm reiterated its Buy rating on HP Enterprise and held its rating on NetApp following earnings beats from both companies. On energy, Goldman recommended cheap dividend-paying energy stocks, saying it still sees opportunity in the sector despite its run higher this year. The firm also warned of geographic concentration risk in gold reserves, a note that coincided with reports of Dutch gold being moved out of the United States.

Goldman led institutional holders of spot XRP ETFs in the second quarter, as U.S.-listed XRP ETF products accumulated roughly $170 million across 11 consecutive trading sessions. The bank is also serving as a lead underwriter on the Oura smart-ring IPO alongside Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, Allen and Company and Jefferies, and is an advisor on the anticipated Hong Kong IPO of Chinese AI startup Moonshot, which is targeting approximately $3 billion in proceeds at a valuation of around $50 billion. Goldman shares contributed to a broad market rally on September 3, with the Dow gaining 614 points, the Nasdaq up 1.3%, and the S&P 500 up 1.0%.