Goldman Sachs Shares Weigh on Dow as Firm Warns AI Could Eliminate 15 Million US Jobs

Goldman Sachs shares fell on October 30, contributing repeatedly to sharp Dow Jones declines that reached as much as 684 points during the session, as broader market pressure from disappointing AI-linked technology earnings hit Wall Street. GS stock was last quoted at $923.94, down 0.21% on the day, though it remained up about 4% over the prior week.

The firm's research arm dominated headlines with a sweeping finding on artificial intelligence and labor markets: Goldman estimates that if AI lifts productivity by 15%, roughly 9% of the US workforce, approximately 15 million people, could be displaced during the transition. Separately, Goldman found that higher AI adoption is already associated with weaker employment growth and higher unemployment, and that AI-driven job losses tend to leave lasting scars on affected workers, prolonging unemployment spells and widening economic inequality. The firm also reported that AI default risk has tripled since January, with credit correlations hitting their highest levels since the onset of the Iran conflict, and Goldman's clients are describing conditions as "a crisis without a crisis."

On the market strategy front, Goldman reported that hedge funds are near a five-year high in short positions as momentum fades and managers shift back toward fundamental stock picking. Goldman's commodities team estimated that Brent crude at roughly $112 per barrel embeds a $27 per barrel geopolitical risk premium above an $85 fair value, with essentially all of the recent price increase attributed to risk premium rather than changes in underlying supply and demand. The firm also raised its rate outlook for the Czech National Bank citing inflation risks, and warned that Vodafone faces meaningful risk from its VMO2 fibre deal.

Goldman's analysts were active across dozens of individual names. Notable upgrades in price targets included Digital Realty Trust on record bookings, Hyatt Hotels to $215 citing RevPAR strength, Altria on an earnings beat, Crocs on growth outlook, Mondelez on an earnings beat, Norwegian Cruise on yield outlook, Life Time Group on membership growth, Sirius XM on subscriber trends, and Builders FirstSource on resilient execution. The firm reiterated Conviction Buy on Amazon citing AWS growth, maintained its Buy on Alphabet as a top AI pick despite a 12% single-session drop in GOOGL shares following a rare earnings miss, and reaffirmed Buy on Apple near its all-time high around $350, pointing to pricing power and new chip advantages. On the downside, Goldman cut targets on O'Reilly Automotive to $104, Hershey on cost pressures, Roblox on bookings outlook, Hilton Grand Vacations on a weaker outlook, Pinterest to $26 on a third-quarter miss, SanDisk on valuation, and Stoke Therapeutics on expenses. Goldman downgraded Bicara Therapeutics to Sell from Neutral with an $8 price target. The firm maintained a Sell on AO Smith amid pricing pressures and kept a Neutral on NextDecade at $8.50.

In a separate development, Goldman Sachs is serving as one of Anthropic's IPO bankers alongside Morgan Stanley, as Blackstone warned investors that Anthropic may not achieve an investment-grade credit rating after listing. Goldman also revised its coverage of Chinese jewelry stocks following a retreat in gold prices, and a Goldman Sachs survey found that just 49% of Gen X savers believe they are on track or ahead for retirement, down from 58% a year earlier.