Iran Loads Zero Crude in September as Hormuz LNG Crisis Deepens and WTI Slides to $88.43

Iran loaded no crude oil onto tankers in September, the first month of zero loadings since the war began in February, according to preliminary vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. The US blockade is holding at least 50 laden tankers bottled up near Iran's coast, with empty vessels loitering at anchorages across the Indo-Pacific rather than returning to Iranian ports, per United Against Nuclear Iran's October 5 shipping update. Twenty Iran-flagged vessels are positioned off Sri Lanka and one off Oman.

Strains on energy supply extend beyond crude. Strait of Hormuz LNG flows remain 75% below normal even after a partial rebound, putting global gas supply and prices at continued risk. Saudi Aramco's CEO has sounded an alarm over dangerously thin global oil inventories, a concern echoed by analysts at HFI Research who note that the large inventory surplus that had weighed on prices has now flipped to a deficit. China, which had cut crude imports by 4 to 5 million barrels per day and acted as a market headwind, is now buying again, removing that buffer and adding fresh demand pressure.

Political responses are creating friction. Japan is balking at further releases from its strategic reserves after the G7 committed to a 100 million barrel pledge, raising the risk of a fresh price spike. Separately, Japan's industry minister said the country aims to agree on action plans with Asian partners to boost regional crude reserves at a ministerial meeting of the Japan-led Asia Zero Emission Community in the Philippines on Thursday. Kalshi market traders are now forecasting US diesel prices will fall to $6.20 this month following a Trump tax-free order on diesel.

Oil prices swung during the session. WTI opened the morning at $89.77, up 0.4%, before sliding sharply to close the evening check at $88.96, down 2.4% on the day. US crude futures then extended losses, falling a further dollar to $88.43 per barrel, as a surge in Strait of Hormuz crude flows past pre-war levels temporarily defused supply crunch fears even as broader structural deficits and geopolitical risks kept the market on edge.