Iran's IRGC Strikes Third Supertanker in Two Days in Strait of Hormuz, Oil Surges 2%

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy struck a third supertanker in the Strait of Hormuz in less than two days, setting the vessel ablaze on the morning of October 12. The IRGC said the tanker had disabled its navigation system and ignored repeated warnings before attempting to exit the strait, justifying the strike on those grounds. Iranian state broadcaster IRIB reposted footage appearing to show a Nicaragua-flagged tanker on fire, and India's Foreign Ministry confirmed two Indian crew members were missing after the vessel was struck.

The attacks are part of a broader escalation by Iran to choke off oil exports transiting the strait. More than a dozen strikes on shipping have occurred since late September, with eleven tankers attacked in a single week ending October 4, the most in any week since the conflict began. Middle East oil shipments have fallen to around 15.3 million barrels per day, roughly 10% below pre-war levels, as the surge of attacks tests whether crude export volumes can hold up under sustained pressure.

Oil markets responded sharply, with West Texas Intermediate rising $1.93, or 2.1%, to $93.78 per barrel and Brent crude climbing $2.09, or 2.0%, to $106.80 per barrel on Monday morning, the highest levels in nearly two weeks. Those gains came despite President Donald Trump's announcements of additional Russian diesel supplies and a Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire, underscoring how heavily Hormuz supply risk is weighing on the market.