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Iran's President and Parliament Speaker Publicly Push for War's End Before Economic Position Weakens Further
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian called openly for ending the war with the United States while Tehran still believes it holds a position of strength, arguing it is better to reach a diplomatic outcome now than to wait until Iran's economic situation deteriorates further. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf echoed that argument with unusual directness, warning that no amount of military power can sustain a country where people are hungry and economic growth has stalled. Ghalibaf, who has a military background, said that those with real experience in conflict understand the value of peace better than those who merely talk about it, signaling a notable alignment between the two officials against hardline factions who oppose any settlement.
The unusually public nature of these statements reflects deepening divisions within Iran's leadership over how to proceed. Central Bank Governor Abdolnaser Hemmati has acknowledged on state television that Iran cannot sell its oil due to a blockade, and a new U.S. economic pressure campaign is compounding those difficulties. Ghalibaf had previously warned that the Strait of Hormuz retains strategic value only as long as ships continue to use it, and reports of millions of barrels of oil being rerouted through alternative channels are now being cited by the pragmatic camp as evidence that Iran's leverage there is eroding.
Hardliners counter that Washington, rather than returning to prior diplomatic terms, appears to be exploiting Iran's economic weakness to demand greater concessions, creating a dynamic in which the economic case for diplomacy grows stronger even as the political cost of making concessions rises.
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- AhramonlineIran president says time to end war while in position of strength
- HamidRezaAz#Iran ’s Growing Debate Over How to End the War The differences within Iran’s leadership over how to proceed with the war are becoming increasingly visible. Today, both President Masoud Pezeshkian and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf made unusually direct comments about the need to end the war and the economic costs of continuing it. Ghalibaf said that regardless of how much military power Iran possesses, “if people are hungry” and there is no economic growth, the country cannot endure. Security, he argued, cannot be sustained without a functioning economy. He then added that, as someone with a military background, “we know the value of peace better than those who talk about peace.” That last point is important. Ghalibaf has increasingly positioned himself alongside Pezeshkian in arguing for a diplomatic way out, while pushing back against hardliners who portray such an approach as capitulation. Pezeshkian was even more direct: “The war must end at some point.” His argument was that Iran should end it now, while Tehran still believes it is negotiating from a position of strength, rather than wait until its economic situation deteriorates further. He also lashed out at critics of his administration, saying those sitting “outside the ring” have little understanding of the pressures the government is actually facing. These comments come amid increasingly open acknowledgments of Iran’s economic problems. Central Bank Governor Abdolnaser Hemmati recently admitted on state television that Iran cannot sell its oil because of the blockade. Trump’s new economic pressure campaign is making the situation even more difficult. There is also a growing concern about Hormuz. Before the latest two weeks of fighting, Ghalibaf had already warned that the Strait has strategic value only as long as ships continue to use it. If traffic remains disrupted, other countries will inevitably search for alternatives. That appears to be happening. Reports that millions of barrels of oil are already being moved through alternative routes are now being cited by the more pragmatic camp as evidence that Iran cannot rely indefinitely on disruption in Hormuz as its main source of leverage. This is consistent with the broader problem I discussed earlier: Iran can impose substantial costs through Hormuz, but it cannot remain in a permanent state of confrontation with the U.S. and the GCC states. The problem is that the hardliners also have a point. According to them, even if Tehran is prepared to return to diplomacy, there is little indication that Trump wants to return to the previous terms. His new economic campaign suggests that Washington may instead use Iran’s growing difficulties to demand more. This is creating a vicious circle. The longer the confrontation continues, the stronger the economic case for diplomacy becomes. But the more Washington increases pressure, the harder it becomes for Iranian leaders to make concessions without appearing to capitulate. What is becoming clearer, however, is that an important part of Iran’s leadership now believes that the current situation is not sustainable and that the military leverage accumulated during the war needs to be translated into a diplomatic outcome sooner rather than later.
- BusinessIran’s president urged an end to the war with the US, his latest pushback against hardliners who want to continue the conflict
- CitrinowiczThe latest moves in Tehran look like an effort by Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf and President Masoud Pezeshkian to persuade senior IRGC commanders, and Mojtaba Khamenei himself, that Iran needs to return to the memorandum of understanding and find a way out of the current confrontation. Their fundamental problem, however, is that there is no meaningful American offer on the table. When senior U.S. officials talk publicly about bringing the Iranian regime to its knees, it becomes extremely difficult for those inside the Iranian establishment who want to end the fighting to point to a credible off-ramp. They may recognize the severity of Iran’s economic situation, but they cannot argue for compromise if Washington is offering them nothing to negotiate over. The most plausible way to prevent another round of escalation would be for both sides to return to the original memorandum without adding new maximalist demands. That would probably require a temporary arrangement that gives Iran some degree of control or authority over the Strait of Hormuz, while creating conditions that allow President Trump to declare that the strait is open and international shipping has been restored. At the moment, however, neither side appears ready for that compromise. Tehran continues to raise demands that Washington is unlikely to accept. At the same time, the Trump administration is showing little interest in returning to negotiations and is instead concentrating on an economic pressure campaign, apparently based on the assumption that sufficiently intense pressure can eventually force Iran to capitulate. This is why the statements by Qalibaf and Pezeshkian should not be overinterpreted. They clearly reflect the increasingly difficult economic situation inside Iran and a desire among parts of the leadership to end the confrontation. But they do not have an American diplomatic proposal that they can take to the IRGC leadership and argue is worth accepting. Paradoxically, this strengthens the more hardline elements of the Iranian system. Their argument is straightforward: if Washington intends to maintain maximum economic pressure while offering no viable diplomatic exit, Iran has little reason to exercise restraint. From their perspective, escalation may be preferable to accepting an indefinite economic siege, particularly if they believe President Trump will become more risk-averse as the U.S. midterm elections approach. For that reason, despite the signals coming from Qalibaf and Pezeshkian, the probability of escalation is currently increasing rather than decreasing. Unless both Washington and Tehran are prepared to return to the memorandum of understanding and make compromises that give the other side something it can politically defend, the voices inside Iran advocating restraint are unlikely to prevail. #iran
- StaunovoIran’s president urged an end to the war with the US, his latest pushback against hardliners who want to continue the conflict