Aramco CEO Warns Oil Inventory Rebuild Could Take Two Years as Iran-US Hormuz Talks Stall

Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei confirmed on October 12 that diplomatic messaging with the United States is continuing through intermediaries, but Tehran has not yet delivered a formal reply. Iran is still reviewing US positions on its seven conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and Baghaei said a response will be transmitted via intermediaries once that review is complete. Foreign Minister Araghchi had earlier characterized Washington's response as inadequate, saying the US accepted some Iranian demands but fell short of meeting all of them.

The diplomatic deadlock is rippling through global energy markets. Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned that the squeeze on crude oil is serious, with commercial onshore inventories now well below six billion barrels, which he described as the last available buffer. He added that the vast majority of those barrels are locked up and that a spike in refined fuel prices is compounding the strain.

Nasser said refilling inventories while simultaneously meeting demand could take up to two years, and that pressure across the energy chain will only intensify until the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens and confidence returns. To reduce reliance on the strait, Aramco is studying additional crude export routes in coordination with the Saudi Energy Ministry and is working to expand its overseas storage capacity. Nasser also outlined a longer-term production goal, targeting roughly an 80 percent increase in sales-gas production capacity by 2030 compared with 2021 levels. Separately, Iran offered to broker talks between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis after Riyadh vowed a serious response to a deadly airport strike.