Iran Escalates Shipping Attacks Before US Midterms as Trump Threatens to Strike and Oil Surges Past $107

Iran is shifting tactics to intensify attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz ahead of the US midterm elections, according to Reuters citing Iranian officials. The UKMTO confirmed multiple vessel strikes, including four ships hit in a single day and six claimed strikes on October 11 alone. Iran's IRGC Navy commander publicly challenged US warships to approach the strait, asserting Iranian control, while US Central Command dismissed the claim, saying American forces and partners clearly dominate the waterway and facilitated the transit of 19 million barrels of oil the prior day. Shipping experts warned the accelerating pace of attacks threatens commercial operations because global shipbuilding cannot keep pace with losses.

President Trump, speaking at a campaign rally in Wasilla, Alaska on behalf of Republican Senate incumbent Dan Sullivan, threatened a forceful response: "Wait till you see what we do to Iran. We're gonna do a number. We've had it." The US simultaneously issued a travel notice reconsidering travel to Saudi Arabia, citing Iran, Houthi, and terrorism risks, and placed restrictions on US government employees in the kingdom. Separately, a Houthi missile struck an Aramco administrative building in Dhahran, causing a limited fire, after earlier Houthi launches toward Riyadh were intercepted by the Saudi-led coalition, injuring four people. The Wall Street Journal reported Houthis are developing an advanced missile incorporating Chinese components and resembling Iran's Kheibar Shekan missile.

At the same Alaska rally, Trump announced that Taiwan has agreed to purchase 30% of the natural gas output from the Alaska LNG pipeline project over a 20-year period, a deal he touted ahead of the midterms. Polymarket placed Democrat Mary Peltola's odds of flipping the Alaska Senate seat at 73%, with Trump-backed Sullivan given only a 27% chance. Trump also pardoned two Alaska diesel mechanics convicted of Clean Air Act violations onstage, declaring they were facing 10 years in prison for fixing an engine.

Trump's separate deal to ease sanctions on Russian diesel exports drew bipartisan fire. A group of 12 senators, including Republicans Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, Thom Tillis, and John Curtis, urged Trump to immediately reverse course, arguing the arrangement would help Moscow fund the war in Ukraine. Trump distanced himself, saying it is "not a USA deal," but the initial volume of approximately 2.2 million barrels, authorized through next April, equals less than two weeks of US demand, and diesel prices remain near $6.28 per gallon with little near-term relief expected. The UK announced it would counter by maintaining its own ban on Russian LNG, as Prime Minister Andy Burnham reaffirmed rock-solid support for Ukraine during a visit by President Zelenskyy.

Oil markets moved sharply higher on the confluence of threats. Brent crude rose more than $1 to top $107 per barrel and WTI gained more than 1% to around $95.34, with energy stocks leading US equity sector gainers. Investor Paul Tudor Jones, speaking on CNBC, said he remains long crude and forecasts an additional $20 to $25 per barrel upside from levels near $92.50, which would push WTI into the $114 to $119 range, attributing his bullish view to the US-Iran conflict and the low probability of a diplomatic resolution before the midterms. He warned such a move would be deeply negative for global equity markets.