Iranian Officials Privately Pessimistic About Reaching US Deal Before November Midterms

Iranian officials have privately expressed pessimism about reaching a deal to end hostilities with Washington and reopen the Strait of Hormuz before the November 3 US midterm elections, according to people familiar with the matter, some of whom were briefed directly by Iranian officials. The assessment follows talks in New York on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly last week that produced little progress, leaving both sides further apart than hoped.

Iran believes there is a high chance of the conflict escalating after the midterm vote, according to the sources. The pessimism among officials stands in contrast to public statements from Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, who told journalists that Tehran wanted a peace deal before November's elections, and from Iran's foreign minister, who proposed a seven-day framework to end fighting and reopen the strait in exchange for the US lifting its military blockade of Iranian ports and releasing frozen assets.

The Strait of Hormuz has been closed since early in the conflict, disrupting roughly 20 percent of global oil flows and sending shockwaves through energy markets. President Trump has publicly said he believes Iran will not finalize a deal until after the midterms, and Iran's private assessments now appear to align with that view despite Tehran's public posture. Trump separately said he rejected Iran's most recent proposal to reopen the strait and expected talks to resume, adding that he thought the two sides would ultimately reach an agreement.