Moderna Surges 10% After Q3 Revenue Nearly Doubles Estimates and Full-Year Outlook Raised to 25% Growth

Moderna posted a sweeping third-quarter beat on November 6, 2026, with revenue of $1.31 billion rising 29% year over year and far exceeding the Wall Street consensus of roughly $885 million to $888 million. The company swung to a net profit of $162 million, with diluted earnings per share of $0.38 against analyst expectations of a loss of approximately $1.09 to $1.25 per share. Strong international demand for its COVID vaccine drove the outperformance, and operating discipline was evident as R&D expenses came in at $583 million versus an estimate of $750 million.

Management sharply raised its full-year 2026 revenue growth outlook to 15% to 25%, a substantial upgrade from prior guidance of up to 10% growth. The company also projected year-end cash of approximately $8.1 billion to $8.3 billion, up from a prior range of $4.7 billion to $5.2 billion. Full-year R&D spending was trimmed to approximately $2.7 billion from $2.9 billion, and capital expenditure guidance was tightened to $200 million. The quarter included a roughly $900 million non-recurring litigation settlement charge in cost of sales, alongside approximately $3.0 billion in principal from convertible notes that generated $2.6 billion in net proceeds.

On the pipeline front, Moderna announced U.S. approval for mFLUSIVA, its fifth approved product globally, and shared updated clinical data for Intismeran showing a 42% reduction in recurrence or death risk, a 38% reduction in distant metastasis or death risk, and a 58% risk reduction after six months. CEO Stephane Bancel, appearing on CNBC's Squawk Box, described the results as a big year of growth and noted that newer vaccines are gaining traction. Moderna shares surged approximately 10% in early trading on November 6, reaching around $262.83, while in premarket activity the stock had already been flagged as rising roughly 3% following the guidance upgrade.