MSCI Inc Beats Q3 Estimates With 12% Revenue Growth, Stock Surges Past 200-Day Moving Average

MSCI Inc. reported third-quarter 2026 results that topped Wall Street expectations across most key metrics, sending shares up roughly 5 to 6.5% on the day and above their 200-day moving average of $572.18 to as high as $605.61. Revenue came in at $892.0 million, beating the $886 million consensus estimate and rising 12.4% year over year. Adjusted EPS of $5.11 beat the $5.02 estimate by $0.09 and grew 14.3% from the prior year period. Adjusted EBITDA rose 12% to $554.8 million, just above the $551 million estimate, though the 62.2% adjusted EBITDA margin came in slightly below the 62.4% forecast.

The Index segment was the standout, generating $532.6 million in revenue, up 18.1% year over year, driven by a 24.9% surge in asset-based fees tied to record ETF assets under management linked to MSCI indexes. Analytics contributed $191.0 million, up 4.8%, Sustainability and Climate added $93.7 million, up 4.0%, and Private Assets grew 6.7% to $74.7 million. Total run rate reached $3.57 billion, up 12.1% year over year, with organic subscription run-rate growth of 8.7% and a client retention rate of 95.0%.

Free cash flow of $385.4 million fell short of the $414 million estimate and declined 8.9% from a year earlier, the one notable miss in an otherwise strong quarter. MSCI repurchased $552.3 million of its shares during the quarter and declared a Q4 2026 cash dividend of $2.05 per share. Full-year 2026 guidance calls for free cash flow of $1.485 billion to $1.545 billion, adjusted EBITDA expenses of $1.340 billion to $1.370 billion, operating expenses of $1.535 billion to $1.575 billion, and capital expenditure of $160 million to $170 million. Raymond James raised its price target on the stock following the results.

The company also announced an agreement to acquire First Street Technology, expanding its capabilities in climate-risk data and analytics. Separately, MSCI's pending review of Strategy's index eligibility drew attention in crypto markets, with Bitcoin trading near $81,400 to $81,834 as investors assessed the potential impact on passive inflows into the bitcoin treasury company. Analyst Adam Back noted that while removal from MSCI indexes would cut passive inflows to Strategy, active fund managers seeking to outperform could still buy its shares.