Oil Risk Premium Hardens as Brent Holds Above $105 and IEA Rules Out New Reserve Release

Brent crude held near $105 a barrel and WTI near $92 on September 29, with Standard Chartered Bank Energy Research Head Emily Ashford declaring there will be no return to normal for the oil market, framing the elevated risk premium as structural rather than cyclical. Diesel prices continued to pull back even as headline crude benchmarks stayed elevated, and equity markets showed a cautious tone, with S&P 500 futures roughly flat and the Nasdaq up only marginally.

The IEA's executive director Fatih Birol signaled that another coordinated release of strategic petroleum reserves is not a top priority for the agency, removing one of the few near-term tools that governments had used to cap prices. That came after a prior 400-million-barrel IEA release in March 2026 failed to durably suppress prices, a backdrop that lends weight to Ashford's structural premium argument.

European equity markets edged higher on Tuesday despite persistently elevated oil and bond yields hovering near multi-year highs, as investors selectively bought stocks. Canadian TSX futures were muted, with oil's support to energy shares broadly offset by caution ahead of GDP data. Gold and bitcoin gained modestly on the day, consistent with the broader risk-off undercurrent tied to geopolitical uncertainty and sticky energy costs.