Shell Posts Second-Highest Quarterly Profit Ever at $10.8 Billion and Doubles Buyback to $5 Billion

Shell reported third-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings of $10.81 billion, its second-highest quarterly profit on record, blowing past the consensus estimate of $9.92 billion. Adjusted EPS came in at $1.93 against an estimate of $1.79, while adjusted EBITDA reached $22.74 billion versus the $21.57 billion forecast. The results were driven by a combination of high oil and LNG prices and, most critically, record oil refining margins, which caused quarterly profit to roughly double year-on-year.

Cash flow from operations surged to $21.04 billion, well ahead of estimates ranging from $16.13 billion to $17.29 billion, while free cash flow reached $16.3 billion. Net debt came in at $39.7 billion, significantly below the $42.04 billion estimate, bringing gearing to 16.6%. Oil and gas output was 2.57 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, slightly above the 2.55 million estimate, though overall production volumes were pressured by Middle East conflict impacts on Qatar operations.

Shell lifted its quarterly share buyback programme to $5 billion, up sharply from the prior rate of approximately $3 billion, with the new programme set to complete by the time Q4 results are announced. The dividend was set at $0.3906 per share, fractionally above the $0.39 estimate, equating to $0.7812 per ADS. Total distributions for the quarter reached $5.3 billion.

For Q4, Shell guided integrated gas production of 1,080 to 1,180 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day and LNG liquefaction volumes of 7.3 to 7.9 million tonnes. Refinery utilisation is expected at 92 to 100 percent and chemicals utilisation at 78 to 86 percent. The company also flagged a $13.9 billion ARC acquisition adding approximately 370 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day, and a planned expansion of LNG Canada Phase 2 that would lift capacity to 28 million tonnes with nearly 6 million tonnes per annum of additional LNG output.