Trade Desk Posts First Revenue Decline in Years but Crushes Estimates, Stock Whipsaws

The Trade Desk reported third-quarter 2026 revenue of $736 million, a 0.5% year-over-year decline that marked the company's first revenue contraction in years, yet the figure came in $85 million above its own August guidance of roughly $651 million and far ahead of Wall Street consensus. Adjusted EBITDA reached $266 million, more than doubling the consensus estimate of $161 million. For the fourth quarter, management guided to at least $755 million in revenue and at least $280 million in EBITDA, signaling a potential stabilization after several disappointing quarters.

The results triggered a sharp overnight rally that pushed TTD to $14.93, a gain of about 32% from its 2026 lows and above the average analyst 12-month price target of $13.71. By morning trading, however, the stock gave back much of those gains, falling roughly 5% to 7% to around $13.94, as investors weighed concerns about revenue composition and the fact that the beat came partly against a lowered bar. CEO Jeff Green acknowledged that growth still falls short of where the company needs to be.

The quarter was shaped by a 15% workforce reduction, demand from political advertising and medical and health clients, and an ongoing reorganization of commercial operations. The company also added $731 million to its share repurchase authorization following the results, though analysts noted a previously authorized $1 billion buyback had gone largely unused. Quarterly net profit fell 67% year over year.

At least five firms raised their price targets in response: Truist set a $17 target, while Jefferies, Rosenblatt, Scotiabank, and Susquehanna also moved their targets higher. Scotiabank cited cost cuts, and Susquehanna pointed to strong overall results. Peer PubMatic fell 5% in sympathy while Magnite held steady. At least one analyst flagged concerns about the composition of Trade Desk's revenue as a watch item going forward.