Market Flux Event
US Diesel Hits Record $6 a Gallon as Energy Shock Spreads From Products to Crude
Read this in the Market Flux appUS diesel prices shattered the $6-a-gallon mark on Friday, driven by an Iran-related supply shock that is straining an already depleted refining system and threatening to lift grocery bills and broader consumer prices. Jeff Currie, founder and chief executive of Real Macro and the former Goldman Sachs commodities chief, said average US gasoline prices will almost certainly reach $5 a gallon before the midterm elections, calling the combination of scarcity and currency debasement "toxic." Currie told Bloomberg Television that the energy shock has entered a dangerous new phase in which shortages that originated in refined products are now spreading upstream into crude, warning that crude oil is now the signal while product prices are the noise.
Geopolitical pressure on global oil routes is intensifying the supply picture. Iran-backed Houthis are attempting to seize the entire Yemeni Red Sea coast to tighten their grip on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, having already declared a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia and threatening to cut Gulf oil producers off from their main shipping routes. Piper Sandler separately warned that shrinking oil inventory buffers are on a collision course with winter demand.
The IEA's September monthly report, released Friday, forecast a sharp drop in global oil demand of 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026, steeper than its prior projections, citing the ongoing impasse over the Strait of Hormuz and renewed Red Sea disruptions. The report briefly pulled WTI crude back below $100 a barrel and snapped a multiday winning streak for both WTI and Brent, with October WTI falling about 2.9 percent on the day. Both benchmarks nonetheless headed toward double-digit weekly gains, reflecting the severity of the underlying supply crunch despite Friday's pullback.
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Sources
- StaunovoVeteran commodities strategist Jeff Currie ( @CommodMkt ) said average US gasoline prices will almost certainly hit $5 a gallon before the midterm elections, citing a toxic combination of scarcity and currency debasement. Shortages that began in refined products are now spreading upstream into crude oil as the energy shock reaches a dangerous new phase, according to Currie, the founder and chief executive officer of Real Macro, who built his name on Wall Street at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. “Crude is the signal, and now we think about products — they are the noise,” Currie said Friday in an interview on Bloomberg Television’s Surveillance #oott
- JavierBlasCHART OF THE DAY (2): While Saudi and Russian oil output plunged in Aug, UAE, Iraq and Kuwait (plus Qatar, to a lesser extent) pumped lots, lifting their combined oil production to near pre-war levels, according to @IEA data. Hormuz clandestine tanker crossings are very real.
- Yahoo FinanceDiesel Prices Just Shattered $6 a Gallon — Here’s Why Your Grocery Bill Could Be Next
- MarketsdayGlobal oil routes are edging dangerously close to a major chokehold | Iran-backed Houthis are attempting to seize the entire Yemeni Red Sea coast to strengthen leverage over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, one of the world's busiest and most contested maritime chokepoints, having already declared a naval blockade against top crude exporter Saudi Arabia and threatening to isolate Gulf oil producers from their main shipping routes. 📖 FULL STORY ➠ #Geopolitics #Oil #Shipping #MiddleEast #Energy
- ZerohedgePiper Sandler Sounds Alarm: Shrinking Oil Buffers To Collide With Winter Demand
- CnbcOil prices fall after double-digit weekly gains above $100
- NasdaqCrude Prices Fall Back After IEA Forecasts Sharp Drop in Oil Demand