US September Housing Data Crumbles as Pending Home Sales Hit All-Time Low

The US housing market deteriorated sharply in September 2026 across multiple fronts, with new construction and contract signings both delivering severe misses. Housing starts plunged 5.2% to an annualized rate of 1.221 million units, far below the consensus forecast of 1.305 million and down from a revised 1.288 million in August. Single-family starts fell 4.6% while multifamily construction dropped 6.7% for five-or-more unit projects, with single-unit starts declining from 859,000. Building permits slipped 0.2% to 1.400 million, a narrower drop than the 1.3% decline forecast, offering a thin bright spot as multifamily permits for five-or-more units rose 5.9% and two-to-four unit permits climbed 8.3%.

The more alarming reading came from the National Association of Realtors, whose pending home sales index collapsed 7.3% month-over-month in September to 66.0, the lowest level since the data series began in 2001. That compared to expectations of roughly no change and reversed August's modest 0.3% gain. Year-over-year, the index was down 11.3%, and on a non-seasonally adjusted basis sales were off 12.6% from September 2025. All four regions weakened, with the West down 9.2% and the South declining 8.2%.

High mortgage rates and affordability pressures were cited across sources as the primary drivers squeezing both builders and buyers. Goldman Sachs noted that despite the housing weakness, it maintained its Q3 GDP growth estimate at 3.3% annualized. Units under construction were flat month-over-month at 587,000, while completions rose 2.2% to 1.192 million, suggesting the pipeline from earlier activity is still clearing. Analysts flagged that the record-low pending sales figure points to further weakness in closed transactions in the months ahead, given the typical four-to-six week lag between contract signings and closings.