WTI Crude Hits $90 and European Gas Surges to Three-Year High as US-Iran Conflict Escalates

WTI crude oil crossed $90 per barrel for the first time since June, rising roughly 4.5%, while Brent climbed more than 4% to above $94 per barrel, after the United States and Iran exchanged military strikes in and around the Strait of Hormuz. The moves marked oil's biggest single-day gain since July and were driven by a fresh wave of US strikes against Iranian targets that renewed fears over supply disruptions through the world's most critical oil chokepoint.

The conflict has already taken a severe toll on global supply. The International Energy Agency cut its 2026 global oil supply forecast to 102 million barrels per day in August, a decline of 4.3 million barrels per day on the year, citing the breakdown of an earlier ceasefire and a renewed closure of the strait. Middle East oil loadings fell from roughly 20 million barrels per day in early July to around 12 million barrels per day as attacks on tankers and energy infrastructure resumed, and the IEA projected a global oil market deficit of 1.8 million barrels per day in the third quarter of 2026.

European natural gas markets also surged sharply, with Dutch TTF front-month futures rising 5.9% to 73.95 euros per megawatt-hour, the highest level since January 2023, on concerns about LNG supply disruptions from the Gulf. US weekly inventory data added a modest supportive note: the American Petroleum Institute reported a crude draw of 2.6 million barrels for the week, reversing a prior build of 4.2 million barrels, with distillate stocks down 0.3 million barrels, while gasoline stocks rose 0.3 million barrels and Cushing hub inventories edged up 0.2 million barrels. The broader market backdrop includes a hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve chair and elevated government borrowing across developed economies, adding further uncertainty to the outlook.