August CPI Matches Forecasts at 3.4% Annual Rate as Stock Futures Rebound and Oil Retreats

US stock futures climbed on September 11 after the August Consumer Price Index came in broadly in line with expectations, offering traders some relief following four consecutive sessions of losses across major indexes. Dow futures rose roughly 470 points, or 0.9%, while S&P 500 futures gained 0.9% and Nasdaq-100 futures advanced 1%. A simultaneous drop in crude oil prices added to the recovery in sentiment, with London stocks also rebounding.

Headline CPI rose 0.4% in August month over month and 3.4% year over year, matching Dow Jones estimates. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, climbed 0.3% on a monthly basis, slightly above expectations, leaving annual inflation well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. The August reading was modestly hotter than July's, when the annual rate also printed at 3.4% on a headline of just 0.1% monthly.

The data fueled expectations that the Fed will raise rates at its meeting next week. The CME FedWatch tool showed an 85.6% probability of a quarter-point hike, and the 2-year Treasury yield touched its highest level since July 2024. Wells Fargo CIO Darrell Cronk said the report confirms the Fed should hike, adding that a hold would now be the surprise outcome. The S&P 500 was on pace for its worst weekly performance since June, driven largely by energy-price inflation concerns before oil's retreat offered a partial offset.