Bitcoin Crosses $80,000 as Weak Jobs Data and Fed's Waller Signal Rate Hold

Bitcoin climbed above $80,000 on September 3, erasing much of a steep decline from the $60,000 area and briefly breaking a key technical level that analysts had flagged as crucial resistance. The move extended a 24-hour gain of roughly 3%, with the price trading around $78,500 earlier in the session before pushing through $80,000 in the afternoon.

Two catalysts drove the rally. ADP data showed US private employers added just 38,000 jobs in August, the weakest reading in seven months and well below the market consensus of around 47,000. Shortly afterward, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he would likely support holding the federal funds rate unchanged at the Fed's September 15-16 meeting, provided that incoming inflation data continues moving toward the central bank's 2% target. Together, the two developments shifted rate-hike expectations sharply: the probability of a 25-basis-point increase at the September meeting fell to roughly 62% from more than 67% the previous day, according to CME FedWatch.

Treasury yields retreated on the news, with the 10-year falling to 4.75% from 4.82% the prior session and the 2-year dropping to 4.33%, down six basis points on the day. Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows also supported demand. Crypto-related equities rallied in tandem, with Strategy, the world's largest corporate Bitcoin holder, rising close to 10%. Ethereum and XRP also gained. Despite crossing $80,000, analysts noted that the exchange whale ratio had risen significantly, a supply-side signal that large holders may be moving coins to exchanges, leaving the sustainability of the breakout an open question ahead of next week's CPI report.