Trump Russia Sanctions Waiver Sends Oil Down More Than 2% from Five-Month High

Oil prices fell sharply on Monday after President Donald Trump waived newly imposed sanctions and tariffs on Russia, a move traders interpreted as clearing the path for higher Russian fuel exports to global markets. Brent crude dropped as much as 2.43% intraday, touching below $105.00 per barrel at its session low before steadying near $107.60 to $108, pulling back from the five-month high it reached on Friday. WTI fell 2.21% to $96.76 per barrel. AAA's national average gas price slipped to $4.2953, the lowest since September 10.

The sanctions waiver drew immediate criticism from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who called the move wrong and warned it undercuts Western pressure on Moscow. The diplomatic backdrop remained active: Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed a three-way summit with Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on Ukraine, explicitly excluding Zelenskyy. That proposal, first reported by the Wall Street Journal, added to market uncertainty about how and when the war might end and what that would mean for Russian energy flows.

Military activity continued to complicate the supply picture. Ukraine struck a refinery in Saint Petersburg over the weekend, a facility with capacity of approximately 355,000 barrels per day, well above the average U.S. refinery size of 141,000 barrels per day. Separately, European natural gas prices surged to their highest level in nearly four years, with the Dutch TTF front-month contract averaging €81 per megawatt-hour so far in October, more than double the inflation-adjusted €33 recorded in October 2025 and the highest in real terms since December 2022. Analysts noted that progress toward a diplomatic resolution of the Middle East conflict could further ease crude prices, while persistent regional risks limited the downside.