Chicago Fed National Activity Index Surges to +0.07 in September, Beating Forecasts

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose to +0.07 in September from a revised -0.08 in August, sharply outpacing the consensus forecast of around -0.10 and marking a significant turnaround from the -0.21 reading recorded in September 2025. A reading above zero indicates the U.S. economy is growing at a pace above its historical trend.

Production was the primary driver of the improvement, while employment contributions remained flat. Consumer spending and housing were relative weak spots in the September reading, pointing to an uneven but net-positive growth picture. The result suggests broad U.S. economic resilience even as individual sectors send mixed signals.