EIA Forecasts 21% Rise in Heating Oil Bills This Winter While Natural Gas Households Get Some Relief

The U.S. Energy Information Administration projected a sharply mixed outlook for winter 2026-27 home heating costs, with the steepest burden falling on the roughly 3% of American households that rely on heating oil, concentrated mostly in the Northeast. The EIA forecasts those households will pay about 21% more than last winter, driven by a forecast 30% rise in heating oil prices tied to supply tightening from the U.S.-Iran war and Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries, with the full price impact partially offset by an expectation of milder Northeast weather this season.

The backdrop for the heating oil surge is the close link between heating oil and diesel prices, both of which have climbed sharply as geopolitical disruptions constrain global supply. Brent crude has risen to around $106 a barrel, rippling through distillate markets and lifting projected seasonal expenditures for Northeast oil-heat users toward roughly $2,300 for the winter.

The picture is more favorable for households on natural gas, which is the most common home heating fuel in the country. Record U.S. natural gas production and well-stocked pre-winter storage are expected to hold costs down for those consumers, providing a counterweight to the increases hitting oil-heat users and contributing to what the EIA described as an overall mixed outlook across fuel types.