EIA Raises Oil and Gas Price Forecasts While Trimming Long-Term Demand Growth Outlook

The U.S. Energy Information Administration released its November Short-Term Energy Outlook, lifting its price forecasts for both WTI and Brent crude while making modest adjustments to production and demand estimates. The EIA now sees 2026 WTI averaging $88.29 per barrel, up from a prior forecast of $88.21, and 2027 WTI at $80.54, up from $79.74. Brent forecasts were revised more sharply, with 2026 now seen at $97.44 per barrel versus the prior $96.32, and 2027 at $85.78 versus $83.74.

On the supply side, U.S. crude output for October was estimated at 13.81 million barrels per day, a drop of 200,000 bpd, though the September figure was revised up to 14.01 million bpd from 13.96 million bpd. The EIA projects a recovery to 14.03 million bpd in November and 14.14 million bpd in December. Full-year 2026 U.S. output is forecast at 13.86 million bpd, essentially unchanged from the prior 13.87 million bpd, with 2027 held steady at 14.3 million bpd. U.S. natural gas production forecasts were lifted, with 2026 now seen at 113 billion cubic feet per day, up from 112.2 bcf/d previously, and 2027 at 117.6 bcf/d versus 116.1 bcf/d.

The EIA trimmed its global oil demand growth outlook, cutting the 2026 demand growth estimate to negative 2.03 million bpd from negative 1.97 million bpd, and reducing the 2027 growth estimate to 1.97 million bpd from 2.21 million bpd. World oil demand for 2026 was held at 102.4 million bpd, while 2027 demand was nudged down to 104.4 million bpd from 104.6 million bpd. Global supply estimates were raised for 2026 to 101.7 million bpd from 101.1 million bpd, while the 2027 figure was cut to 108.4 million bpd from 109.6 million bpd.

The EIA pegged OPEC+ crude production at 37.26 million bpd in October, up sharply from 35.95 million bpd in September, with November output projected to ease slightly to 37.13 million bpd. Saudi crude production for October was estimated at 9.3 million barrels per day, representing the first major-agency read on the kingdom's output for that month. The EIA's snapshot of October balances showed global supply running well ahead of demand, at 104.47 million bpd versus 102.78 million bpd, with that surplus expected to widen further in November to 105.46 million bpd in supply against 103.53 million bpd in demand.