European Gas Hits EUR100 for First Time Since 2022 as Iran War Tightens Global Energy Markets

European natural gas prices broke above EUR100 per megawatt-hour on October 28, a level last seen during the 2022 energy crisis, as the Iran war disrupts LNG shipments from the Middle East and Europe enters peak winter demand season with storage well below normal. Disruptions to Qatari LNG flows have been a particular flashpoint, and analysts cited by Euronews do not expect costs to fall soon. The surge adds to a broader commodity pressure picture in which Brent crude stalled around $112 to $114 a barrel and WTI traded near $99.61.

A letter from U.S. Vice President JD Vance reviving hopes for Iran peace talks briefly trimmed crude prices on October 29, with Brent futures declining roughly $1.22 to $114.10 and WTI slipping as diplomacy introduced some supply-side uncertainty. The development illustrates how sensitive an already elevated oil market remains to any shift in the Iran conflict, with prices holding well above $100 even as Gulf of Mexico output runs at high levels.

Against that backdrop, Petrobras reported record oil and gas production in the third quarter, output climbing 12% on the year to 3.51 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. The Brazilian state producer credited the ramp-up of the P-78 and P-79 floating production platforms at its deep-water Buzios project, with quarterly output rising 5.3% from the second quarter and its refineries running near full capacity. The results underscore how non-Middle Eastern producers have stepped in to help offset war-driven disruptions.

Equinor separately announced that a North Sea gas find is larger than initially estimated, with reports indicating the revised resource estimate is roughly double earlier figures. The upgrade is timely given Europe's acute supply squeeze. Meanwhile, Venezuela's oil sector continues to struggle, with industry executives warning that wages far below international levels are preventing the country from recruiting enough skilled petroleum engineers to revive dilapidated infrastructure, complicating U.S. and Venezuelan government efforts to boost output. In Iraq, the appointment of a new Deputy Prime Minister with energy responsibilities is reshuffling the oil sector's power structure, with the official already holding talks with ExxonMobil and the Kurdistan Regional Government.