European Natural Gas Surpasses €80 Per MWh for First Time Since 2023

European natural gas prices broke above €80 per megawatt-hour on September 9, 2026, the highest level for the benchmark Dutch TTF front-month contract since early 2023. The move extends a sharp rally that has taken TTF from a low of roughly €26.50 per MWh earlier in the year to its current level, driven by a compounding set of supply disruptions.

A central driver is the intensifying conflict between the United States and Iran, which has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz to LNG shipments for several months. Before the conflict, the waterway handled approximately 20% of global LNG trade, and its closure has removed a significant share of supply available to European buyers. Separately, strikes in March 2026 heavily damaged two LNG production units at Qatar's Ras Laffan complex, eliminating around 17 billion cubic metres of annual export capacity, equivalent to about 17% of Qatar's total LNG export capacity. Repairs are expected to take three to five years according to the IEA, which has also called on Europe to tap emergency reserves.

With storage economics also deteriorating, as the usual summer discount that incentivizes injection has narrowed, Goldman Sachs analysts have warned that December 2026 TTF may need to rise above €100 per MWh to attract sufficient LNG supply to Europe, compared with the bank's earlier base case of €50 per MWh. Higher energy prices are feeding directly into inflation concerns, and markets moved to price in a quarter-point rate increase by the European Central Bank, which would lift its deposit rate from 2.25% to 2.5%.