Intel Stock Falls as TSMC Eyes Terafab Role and Analyst Flags CPU Share Losses

Intel shares dropped roughly 3% to $115.31 on Monday after Elon Musk confirmed over the weekend that he is in discussions with TSMC about a potential role in Terafab, his planned semiconductor facility in Texas. Musk posted on X on October 4 that talks with TSMC were underway, writing "Just discussions, but something may come of it," prompting concern that Intel could lose its standing as the project's sole named chipmaking partner. Intel had joined Terafab in April 2026, with its next-generation 14A node designated as the facility's exclusive manufacturing process, making the project a cornerstone of the company's foundry turnaround story.

The TSMC talks followed an October 2 report from the Culpium newsletter that TSMC was exploring ways to participate in Terafab's planned operations. Terafab's first phase was announced on August 6 with a committed investment of $16.8 billion, with county filings suggesting total investment across multiple phases could reach $119 billion. TSMC's US-listed shares rose around 1% on the news while its Taiwan-listed shares closed 3% higher.

A separate note from Susquehanna added to the pressure on Intel. Analysts estimated that Intel continued to lose CPU model share in both laptops and desktops during the third quarter of 2026. Intel's laptop model share fell 3.9 percentage points quarter over quarter to 68.1%, while AMD's share rose 3.1 percentage points to 29.3% and Qualcomm's share reached 2.2%, its highest level in Susquehanna's study. In desktops, Intel's model share declined 1.6 percentage points to roughly 76%, its lowest reading since the second quarter of 2023. Intel Foundry reported a $2.1 billion loss in the second quarter, and with the stock trading at 63 times forward earnings, analysts noted there is little margin for either concern to deepen.