Israeli Election Exit Polls Show Deadlock as Eisenkot Bloc Narrowly Leads but Neither Side Reaches Majority

Israel's first general election since the October 7, 2023 attacks ended Tuesday in an apparent deadlock, with exit polls from all five major broadcasters showing neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor his main challenger, opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot, on track to secure the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset. Three of the four main polls gave Eisenkot's bloc a narrow edge of 52 to 53 seats against Netanyahu's bloc at 50, while Channel 14 projected a far wider gap of 60 seats for Netanyahu's camp against 43 for the opposition. Palestinian Arab parties were projected to win a historically large number of seats, with most polls placing them at 17 to 18 seats.

Netanyahu's Likud party was nonetheless projected to be the single largest party in the Knesset across all five exit polls, with seat estimates ranging from 24 to 30. His rival Eisenkot's Yashar party was projected to win 19 to 22 seats. Netanyahu claimed vindication on the basis that Likud received the most votes of any single party, while Eisenkot declared the results showed "complete nonconfidence" in Netanyahu and "complete no-confidence in the October 7 government," calling the outcome "a victory for the mainstream Zionist majority" and vowing to replace the Netanyahu government quickly if the results held.

Voter turnout reached 74.3 percent of eligible voters by 8 PM local time, with two hours still remaining before polls closed, making it the highest turnout in nearly four decades and the highest recorded at that hour since 1988. Netanyahu's request to extend voting hours was rejected by Israel's election commission, which cited the high national turnout as evidence the public had sufficient access to the process.

With neither bloc commanding a majority, final results could take days and coalition negotiations are expected to last weeks, with smaller parties and Arab-majority factions positioned as potential kingmakers. Reports emerged that Trump allies were discussing plans to keep Netanyahu on as caretaker prime minister and push for another election if no coalition can be formed. No single party has ever won 61 seats outright in Israeli history, making coalition-building the norm, but the current fragmentation makes the path to a stable government especially uncertain.