US Consumer Confidence Surges to 91.7 Against Forecast of 81 as Housing Data Also Beats

Consumer confidence in the United States jumped sharply in October, with the Conference Board index coming in at 91.7, well above the forecast of 81 and the prior reading of 81.9. The magnitude of the beat, more than 10 points above expectations, signals a significant improvement in household sentiment that had not been anticipated by markets.

September new home sales also topped forecasts, reaching an annualized rate of 676,000 units against an estimate of 651,000, though that figure represented a modest 0.6% decline from August's 684,000. The drop was far smaller than the 4.5% fall that analysts had projected. The median new home sale price came in at $400,400, down 3.9% from September 2025, a shallower year-over-year decline than the 5.8% recorded in August. Housing supply eased slightly to 8.4 months from 8.5 months.

The FHFA House Price Index for August rose 0.3% month over month, edging past the 0.2% forecast, though the year-over-year gain slowed to 2.4% from 2.6% previously. Separately, the Redbook retail sales index accelerated to 9.3% year over year from 9.0%, pointing to continued consumer spending momentum. The Richmond Fed composite manufacturing index held at -2, missing the flat reading of zero that had been forecast.