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US October PPI Rises 6.5% Annually, Highest Since November 2022, but Misses Forecasts Slightly

By Market Flux···1 min read
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The United States Producer Price Index for October 2026 rose 6.5% year over year, its highest reading since November 2022, but came in just below the 6.6% consensus forecast. On a monthly basis, headline PPI increased 0.3%, also undershooting the 0.4% estimate and decelerating sharply from the prior month's revised 1.4% gain. Core PPI, which strips out food and energy, held at 5.0% annually, exactly in line with expectations and unchanged from the prior reading, while rising 0.3% month over month against a prior revised 0.8%.

The modest headline miss provided some relief to markets that had already been rattled by an upside CPI surprise earlier in the week. Spot gold extended gains after the release, rising 0.5% to $3,894.57 per ounce, and traders priced in slightly less Federal Reserve tightening immediately following the print. S&P 500 and Dow futures had been up around 0.2% ahead of the data, with Nasdaq-100 futures near flat, as investors looked to stabilize after Thursday's sell-off that left the Dow down 189 points, the S&P 500 off 0.4% at 7,592.40, and the Nasdaq Composite lower by 0.4%.

Despite the slight undershoot, inflation remains well above the Fed's target and analysts cautioned the data does not change the broader tightening trajectory. Bank of America updated its Fed call ahead of the release, now forecasting 25 basis point hikes at each of the next three meetings and a terminal rate of 4.5-4.75%, arguing that October CPI confirmed the Fed is behind the curve and quarterly hikes are insufficient. MNI reported the Fed is on course to raise rates again in December and may debate a third move in early 2027. The PPI excluding food, energy, and trade services rose 0.5% month over month, above both the 0.4% estimate and the prior 0.5% reading, reinforcing views that underlying price pressures remain sticky. The week ahead will bring October retail sales on Tuesday and FOMC minutes on Wednesday, with heavy Fedspeak scheduled throughout.

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Sources

  1. WallstengineToday's Key Events (All EST) — 11/13/2026 08:30: US PPI (Oct) 09:10: Fed's Collins 09:40: Fed's Logan 10:30: US Natural Gas Storage 10:50: Fed's Bowman 12:00: Fed's Daly 13:00: US Baker Hughes Rig Count 19:00: Fed's Jefferson No major US earnings
  2. FXStreetNews🌟 #Gold attracts some buyers on Friday as the #USD pauses after a strong rally to a 19-month peak. 🏦 #Fed hike bets and geopolitical risk could limit deeper USD losses and cap the upside for bullion. Stay tuned! 👇
  3. BusinessStocks are set to open higher as traders waited for the latest inflation data to cap a dramatic week marked by a sharp rise in Federal Reserve rate-hike bets and Jensen Huang’s ouster from Nvidia. Get market insight on Bloomberg Surveillance. @tomkeene @ptsweeney @AlexisTVNews are LIVE on YouTube
  4. PiQMarkets🇧🇷 Brazil Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) $BRL Actual: 0.2% Forecast: -0.2% Previous: 0.1%
  5. MikeZaccardiBofA: Adding another hike to our Fed call 'We now expect 25bp hikes at the next three Fed meetings, for a terminal rate of 4.5- 4.75%.' 'Oct CPI confirmed that the Fed is behind the curve on inflation. Quarterly hikes won't be enough to catch up.'
  6. MarketsdayUS Stock Market – #Corporate News & Market Update – November 13, 2026 🔹 US equity futures attempted a mild recovery on Friday following Thursday’s sell-off, as investors assessed corporate developments, inflation concerns and geopolitical tensions. 🔹 Nvidia $NVDA: Reports of a leadership shake-up triggered volatility in the stock. The supplied report claims CEO Jensen Huang resigned and CFO Colette Kress became interim CEO. These claims require verification before publication. 🔹 Microsoft $MSFT: Shares declined around 2% amid reports of global disruptions affecting the company’s flagship software. 🔹 Merck KGaA $MKKGY: Q3 2026 adjusted EPS came in at $0.24, missing the $0.50 estimate, while revenue of $6.48 billion exceeded expectations. 🔹 Figure Technology Solutions $FIGR: Q3 adjusted EPS was $0.36 versus the $0.31 estimate, while revenue reached $283.35 million. 🔹 Wolverine World Wide $WWW: Q3 adjusted EPS came in at $0.79, beating the $0.46 estimate, with revenue of $505.4 million. 🔹 US Markets – Thursday’s Close: The Dow Jones fell 189.40 points (-0.4%) to 52,297.09, the S&P 500 declined 0.4% to 7,592.40, and the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.4% to 25,366.09. 🔹 US Futures: S&P 500 and Dow futures rose approximately 0.2%, while Nasdaq-100 futures gained around 0.1%, as investors awaited October PPI inflation data. 🔹 Geopolitical developments and US–Iran oil-related remarks remained additional factors influencing market sentiment. #USMarkets #WallStreet #Nvidia #NVDA #Microsoft #MSFT #CorporateEarnings #DowJones #SP500 #Nasdaq #Inflation #PPI
  7. MNIMarketnewsMNI's key exclusive stories for this week: • The Federal Reserve looks on course to raise interest rates again next month and debate a third move in early 2027 before taking a fresh look at the policy trajectory next year amid a political shift that could dampen the pace of AI investment and a likely pullback in oil prices if the Middle East conflict winds down. • Further gradual tightening of European Central Bank monetary policy looks warranted given upside inflation risks, but the ECB’s meeting-by-meeting approach gives policymakers flexibility over by how much and when rates should rise, Governing Council member Martins Kazaks told MNI. • European Economy Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis signalled to euro area finance ministers on Monday that he is ready to get tough on enforcing the EU's fiscal rules as bond markets turn volatile, MNI understands. 👉 ... #globalmacro #macroeconomics #inflation #economy #markets
  8. CoinpaperUS PPI Inflation Report Today: Bitcoin, Gold and S&P 500 Await Key Fed Rate Hike Signal
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  1. BullTheoryioBREAKING: 🇺🇸 US PPI MoM came in at 0.3% Expectations: 0.4%
  2. WatcherGuruJUST IN: 🇺🇸 US PPI rises to 6.5%, lower than expectations.
  3. AshCryptoBREAKING: 🇺🇸 US PPI came in at 6.5% Highest level in almost 4 years.
  4. FinancialjuiceCANADIAN MANUFACTURING SALES MOM ACTUAL 0% (FORECAST 0.1%, PREVIOUS 1.5%) $MACRO
  5. ZerohedgePPI 0.3% MoM, Exp. 0.4% PPI 6.5% YoY, Exp. 6.6% PPI Core 0.3%, Exp. 0.3% PPI Core 5.0% YoY, Exp. 5.0%
  6. DeItaoneUS PRODUCER INFLATION COOLS SLIGHTLY BUT REMAINS ELEVATED AT 6.5% US producer prices rose 0.3% in October, below the 0.4% forecast, while annual PPI reached 6.5%, versus 6.6% expected. 🔸 Headline PPI MoM: +0.3% vs. +0.4% expected 🔸 Headline PPI YoY: +6.5% vs. +6.6% expected 🔸 Core PPI MoM: +0.3%, in line 🔸 Core PPI YoY: +5.0%, in line 🔸 PPI excluding food, energy and trade MoM: +0.5% The modest headline miss offers some relief, but persistent underlying price pressures reinforce concerns about inflation.
  7. CNBCWholesale prices rose 0.3% in October, slightly less than expected
  8. InvestingcomPPI 0.3% MoM, Exp. 0.4% PPI 6.5% YoY, Exp. 6.6% PPI CORE 0.3%, Exp. 0.3% PPI CORE 5.0% YoY, Exp. 5.0%
  9. LiveSquawkUS PPI Final Demand (M/M) Oct: 0.3% (est 0.4%; prev 1.3%; prevR 1.4%) - PPI Final Demand (Y/Y): 5.0% (est 6.6%; prev 6.3%) - PPI Ex Food And Energy (M/M): 0.3% (est 0.3%; prev 0.7%; prevR 0.8%) - PPI Ex Food And Energy (Y/Y): 5.0% (est 5.0%; prev 5.0%) - PPI Ex Food/Energy/Transport (M/M): 0.5% (est 0.4%; prev 0.5%) - PPI Ex Food/Energy/Transport (Y/Y): 4.9% (est 4.8%; prev 5.0%)
  10. OpenOutcrierOCT PPI FINAL DEMAND M/M: 0.3% V 0.4%E; Y/Y: 6.5% V 6.6%E - PPI (ex-food/energy) M/M: 0.3% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 5.0% v 5.0%e - PPI (ex-food/energy/trade) M/M: 0.5% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 4.9% v 4.8%e
  11. KobeissiLetterBREAKING: October PPI Inflation rises to 6.5%, its highest level since November 2022. Core PPI Inflation was 5.0%, in-line with expectations of 5.0%. CPI, PPI, and PCE inflation continue to push higher in the US. All signs point toward a December rate hike.
  12. FirstSquawkUS PPI (MOM) (OCT)ACTUAL: 0.3% VS 1.3% PREVIOUS; EST 0.4%
  13. MaceNewsMacroCANADA MANUFACTURING SALES FLAT IN SEPT. FROM AUG. (VS. +0.1% MARKETS EXPECTED) #Canadaecon #Manufacturing
  14. Seeking AlphaPPI inflation rises less than expected in October
  15. KalshiJUST IN: US PPI rises to 6.5%, below expectations
  16. NasdaqU.S. Producer Prices Rise Slightly Less Than Expected In October
  17. ElerianmRelief as US PPI inflation doesn't follow the CPI's unpleasant surprise: October monthly PPI came in line with consensus for core (0.3%) and better than expected for headline (0.3% vs. 0.4% expected). This brings the annual measures to 5.0% (core) and 6.5% (headline), respectively. #economy #markets #inflation