JPMorgan Gives Bitcoin Its First Slot in 31-Year Forecast, Projecting 10% Annual Return Through 2036

J.P. Morgan Asset Management included Bitcoin in its 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions for the first time in the report's 31-year history, projecting a 10% annualized compounded return over a 10-to-15-year horizon. That figure tops every other asset class in the forecast table, exceeding the bank's 7.5% estimate for U.S. large-cap stocks and 5.5% for gold. The bank assigned Bitcoin annualized volatility of 55%, compared with 17.2% for gold, and noted that unstable correlations with other assets limit its role in standard allocation models.

BlackRock filed separately with the SEC on October 19 for the iShares Bitcoin Managed Protection ETF, ticker PBIT, which would hold options and fixed-income securities rather than Bitcoin directly. The fund would use an options strategy referencing IBIT to seek partial downside protection in exchange for capping some upside gains, and its preliminary prospectus explicitly excludes direct Bitcoin or spot Bitcoin ETP holdings. The filing cannot be sold until the registration statement becomes effective.

BlackRock's existing IBIT fund drew $665.2 million on October 19, its largest single-day inflow in a year, pushing U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs to a combined net inflow of $526.7 million, their best daily figure since September 22. The aggregate gain masked divergence across funds: Fidelity's FBTC recorded roughly $83.6 million in outflows and Grayscale's GBTC shed about $54.9 million, making IBIT the only major fund with positive net flows on the day. Cumulative net inflows across U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs since launch stood at $57.476 billion, while October's net flows remained approximately $88 million negative heading into the week.

Despite the ETF inflows, Bitcoin traded below $82,000, slipping to around $81,400, a decline of roughly 1.3% over 24 hours. Open interest rose during the price drop, a pattern consistent with new short positions being added, with one notable short account growing to about $37.5 million and carrying more than $126 million in cumulative profit. Analysts noted that equity weakness, including a 1.3% drop in semiconductor shares, could weigh on Bitcoin demand even as institutional flows through regulated products remained comparatively firm.