OPEC+ Capacity Review Pushed to Mid-November as Iran War Leaves Data Gaps

OPEC+ has delayed its oil production capacity assessment exercise after not all member countries submitted the required data, with the review now expected to be completed by mid-November, according to sources cited by Reuters. The disruption is tied directly to the ongoing Iran war, which has upended expansion plans across the group and complicated the data-gathering process.

The capacity review is a critical step for the alliance, as its results are intended to set the baseline for calculating each member's production quota heading into 2027. OPEC+ had previously agreed to hold output policy unchanged for October while it worked through the quota-setting process, a decision made against the backdrop of the Iran war constraining exports through the Strait of Hormuz and limiting the group's ability to influence prices and market share.

The delay pushes the timeline for finalizing new member quotas closer to the full alliance ministerial meeting expected in late November, compressing the window for negotiations and raising uncertainty over the group's 2027 supply strategy.