OPEC Slashes 2026 Oil Demand Forecast as Hormuz Deadlock Deepens and US Crude Stockpiles Surge

OPEC cut its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 580,000 barrels per day from a prior estimate of 780,000 bpd, citing stalled negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing Red Sea disruptions. The group raised its 2027 demand growth projection to 2.16 million bpd from 1.94 million bpd. OPEC+ crude production rose by 1.424 million bpd month-on-month to 37.655 million bpd in July.

Separately, the IEA more than doubled its global oil deficit forecast for the current quarter to 1.8 million barrels per day. Adding to the complex picture, EIA data showed U.S. commercial crude stockpiles surged by 17.4 million barrels in the week ended August 7, the largest weekly build since January 2023, bringing total stocks to 424.4 million barrels, roughly 2% below the five-year seasonal average. Analysts attributed the outsized inventory build in part to shifting trade flows, with Saudi crude rerouted via the Suez Canal bypassing the blocked Bab al-Mandeb strait, causing timing distortions between imports and exports.

A VLCC was spotted loading at Saudi Arabia's Ju'aymah terminal for the first time in nearly a month, a tentative sign the kingdom may be resuming Persian Gulf exports. U.S. implied oil demand fell 335,000 bpd week-on-week to 20.635 million bpd, with distillate demand dropping 483,000 bpd and gasoline down 67,000 bpd, partially offset by a 353,000 bpd rise in jet fuel. Russia's crude production lagged its OPEC+ quota by nearly 1 million bpd in July, averaging 8.887 million bpd, as Ukrainian drone strikes targeted oil infrastructure daily and drove Black Sea tanker freight rates to a record $440,948 per day.

Oil prices dipped as investors weighed the lower demand forecasts against the unresolved U.S.-Iran talks deadlock over the Hormuz passage.