Saudi Arabia Surges Oil Output 26% to War-Time High as OPEC+ Production Jumps 2 Million Barrels Per Day

Saudi Arabia reported to OPEC that its crude oil production jumped 26% in October to 10.563 million barrels per day, up from 8.372 million bpd in September, reaching its highest level since before the onset of the Iran war. The 2.19 million bpd increase marks a sharp rebound driven by a recovery in Gulf production and a resumption of regional shipment flows following disruptions caused by ongoing conflict and instability in the Strait of Hormuz. Iraq also raised output, reporting production of nearly 4.9 million bpd.

The broader OPEC+ group, including former member the United Arab Emirates, averaged 41.23 million bpd in October, a rise of 2.04 million bpd month-on-month. Despite the production surge, OPEC left its global oil demand growth forecasts unchanged: 0.18 million bpd for 2026 and 2.55 million bpd for 2027, while non-OPEC+ supply growth projections also held steady at 0.64 million bpd for 2026 and 0.62 million bpd for 2027.

The supply recovery has weighed on oil prices, with Brent crude declining roughly 21% in November to around $93 per barrel, down from above $110 at the end of October. OPEC+ is reviewing members' production capacities ahead of its November 29 meeting, where output targets for 2027 will be discussed, and the sustained rise in Gulf supply could increase pressure on prices if global demand remains constrained.