Saudi Oil Output Surges to Wartime High as OPEC Raises 2027 Demand Forecast

Saudi Arabia told OPEC in the cartel's October 2026 monthly report that its crude production jumped to 8.372 million barrels per day in September, up from 6.238 million bpd in August, marking the kingdom's highest output level since the war began and a recovery from what had been a three-decade production low. The near-2.2 million bpd month-on-month swing drove a broader OPEC+ rebound, with the group's total crude output, including former member UAE, averaging 39.07 million bpd in September, a gain of roughly 900,000 bpd from August.

The October report carried sharply revised demand projections in both directions. OPEC raised its 2027 global oil demand growth forecast to 2.55 million bpd from 2.36 million bpd, reflecting expectations that a production recovery will support economic activity. At the same time, it cut its 2026 demand growth forecast to just 180,000 bpd from 380,000 bpd, acknowledging the toll the conflict took on consumption this year.

Market reaction was visible ahead of the report, with RBOB gasoline futures hitting their lowest levels of the month on October 13 as traders priced in the supply recovery. The data signal that Gulf output disrupted by the war is beginning to normalize, though the 2026 demand cut underscores how severely the conflict compressed activity during the year.