Tesla and SpaceX Report Q3 Earnings on Consecutive Days as Merger Speculation Peaks

SpaceX and Tesla are set to report third-quarter results on consecutive days this week, giving investors a rare side-by-side look at Elon Musk's two most valuable companies, with merger speculation casting a long shadow over both reports. SpaceX, which went public in a record IPO in June, is expected to post Q3 revenue of roughly $12.7 billion, up sharply from the $7.8 billion it recorded in Q2, alongside adjusted EPS of around $0.13-$0.15 and adjusted EBITDA of approximately $6.59 billion, according to LSEG and Bloomberg consensus estimates. RBC has flagged more than 50% upside for SpaceX shares, citing continued Starlink momentum and Starship progress.

Tesla's Q3 report, due October 21, is expected to center on delivery volumes, cash flow, and the trajectory of its Robotaxi and Optimus programs. Analysts expect Tesla's diluted EPS to decline roughly 35% year-over-year to $0.71 for the full year, though Morgan Stanley noted that strong auto and energy deliveries improve near-term fundamentals. Cathie Wood's ARK Investment Management has outlined more than 1,000% upside for Tesla by 2031, contingent in part on a SpaceX merger.

Merger speculation has become impossible to ignore ahead of both reports. Prediction market odds on a Tesla-SpaceX combination have risen above 50% for early 2027. Barclays analyst Dan Levy expects a merger announcement before Tesla's annual general meeting, which must occur no later than December 6, 2026, and envisions the deal structured as an AI vertical integration combining Tesla's Robotaxi and Optimus platforms with SpaceX's Grok and Macrohard units. Elon Musk himself previously noted "more and more overlap" between the two companies. Investors submitted merger-timing questions ahead of the SpaceX earnings call, with those entries drawing heavy upvotes.