Trump Declares Russia-Ukraine Energy Ceasefire But Moscow Has Not Confirmed It

US President Donald Trump announced an immediate "energy ceasefire" between Russia and Ukraine, claiming he had brokered the agreement following direct talks with Vladimir Putin. The announcement, which included a proposal for Russia to increase diesel exports to the United States by 500,000 metric tons, caught both sides off guard. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed surprise and reported fresh Russian strikes on Ukrainian power plants causing outages, while Moscow offered no confirmation of any agreement.

Zelenskyy said he would back the ceasefire if Russia agreed to the same terms, but Ukrainian officials pointed out a significant imbalance in the proposed "refinery for refinery" arrangement: Ukraine has a single oil refinery that Russia has repeatedly attacked and left largely non-functional, while Russia operates a vast network of refineries. Trump's diesel deal with Putin also drew bipartisan opposition in Congress, with lawmakers from both parties arguing it would finance Putin's war effort and potentially violate US law.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who spoke with both Trump and Zelenskyy on the same morning, called the potential agreement meaningful and urged Russia to uphold it. The announcement sent markets in sharply different directions: Brent crude oil fell nearly 2%, US and European stock futures edged higher with the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq futures all climbing, and wheat declined for a fourth consecutive day on hopes of reduced Black Sea disruptions. Gold ticked up to around $4,207 an ounce as traders balanced cautious optimism over the ceasefire against rising Middle East tensions, including a renewed Houthi strike on Riyadh's airport that killed one person and injured eleven. Jim Cramer publicly pushed back on the oil selloff, expecting crude to hold near $100 given the war's continuation.

Separately, North Korea fired multiple ballistic missiles from the Pyongyang area toward the East Sea, with South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff reporting the missiles traveled more than 900 kilometers. Seoul convened an emergency National Security Council meeting and demanded an immediate halt, calling the launches a severe breach of UN resolutions. The test, North Korea's fourth in a month, followed South Korea's recent hypersonic missile test and added another layer of geopolitical stress to an already unsettled global environment.