Market Flux Event
UK Scrambles to Back Ukraine as Trump's Russian Diesel Deal Draws Bipartisan Senate Backlash
Read this in the Market Flux appAndy Burnham will host Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at Downing Street on Wednesday as Britain races to shore up support for Kyiv following Donald Trump's diesel deal with Vladimir Putin. Burnham plans to tell Zelenskyy that British backing is "rock solid" and will announce faster delivery of lightweight multirole missiles to help Ukraine defend against jet-powered drones.
The Trump-Putin arrangement, which authorizes U.S. purchases of roughly 2.2 million barrels of Russian diesel through next April, has piled pressure on Ukraine's allies, particularly Britain, to demonstrate a coherent strategy. London was not informed of the deal in advance, though British officials say they saw warning signs in the weeks before the announcement that Washington was drifting toward Moscow again. The UK's response centers on quiet diplomacy, showing Trump that Putin is continuing attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure in defiance of any ceasefire, a strategy already tested once after the Oval Office confrontation between Trump and Zelenskyy last year.
Britain is also planning fresh sanctions on Russia and intends to pressure Moscow to join a formal energy ceasefire. Ukraine retains the ability to strike Russian oil refineries using European targeting data even without U.S. intelligence, and London has signaled it would support continued strikes if Putin does not comply with Trump's ceasefire terms. Officials warned that any cutoff of U.S. early-warning intelligence would be the most damaging blow to Ukraine's defenses, and Kyiv's allies plan to lobby Washington hard against that step. On Tuesday night, Zelenskyy reported that Kyiv was under ballistic missile attack targeting energy infrastructure, with no early warning from partners.
Trump said Tuesday the U.S. is still sharing intelligence with Ukraine and defended the diesel arrangement, but then appeared to walk back ownership of the deal, calling it "not a USA deal" after bipartisan criticism mounted. A group of 12 senators, including Republicans Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, Thom Tillis, and John Curtis alongside three Democrats, urged Trump to immediately reverse course, arguing the deal would help Moscow sustain the war. Analysts and fuel-price trackers say the deal is unlikely to deliver meaningful relief at the pump: diesel remains near $6.28 per gallon, and the volume involved is too small relative to U.S. and global demand to move prices materially before the November midterm elections.
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Sources
- AlexwickhamNEW: Andy Burnham will host Volodymyr Zelenskyy at No10 on Wednesday as Ukraine and its allies scramble to respond to Trump’s diesel “deal” with Putin Burnham will tell Zelenskyy Britain’s support is “rock solid,” with faster delivery of lightweight multirole missiles to help Ukraine defend against jet-powered drones Trump’s latest move away from Europe and toward Russia has piled pressure on Ukraine’s allies, above all Britain, to demonstrate they have a strategy to overcome Putin’s war It also puts under the spotlight the UK’s long-standing approach of attempting to keep Trump onside despite his public attacks on Zelenskyy and repeated attempts to pressure Ukraine rather than Russia The UK wants to respond to the Trump-Putin deal with quiet diplomacy, showing Trump that Putin is continuing his attacks on Ukraine and its energy infrastructure, in defiance of the “ceasefire,” sources say. It reprises the strategy used after Trump and Zelenskyy’s Oval Office fallout last year But the No10 approach is being tested to the limit as Trump sides with Putin and tries to pressure Zelenskyy to stop striking Russian oil refineries While the US did not inform the UK of the Trump-Putin deal ahead of time, Britain saw signs in the weeks preceding the announcement that the US was once again moving into a bad place, sources say Ukraine still holds some cards even as it comes under renewed pressure from Trump, the sources said. It is able to strike Russian oil refineries even without US intelligence, using European targeting data instead. If Putin does not adhere to Trump’s ceasefire, Britain would back Ukraine to keep striking Russian energy infrastructure Any cutting off of US intelligence, which briefly happened last year, would be most damaging for Ukraine’s defences because it is reliant on a US early warning system to defend against Russian attacks, they said. Kyiv’s allies will lobby the US not to stop sharing intelligence, they added Tonight Zelenskyy says Kyiv is under ballistic missile attack from Russia targeting its energy infrastructure with no early warning from Ukraine’s partners
- FirstSquawkUK IS SEEKING TO PRESSURE RUSSIA INTO JOINING TRUMP’S ENERGY CEASEFIRE, PLANNING FRESH RUSSIA SANCTIONS AND INCREASED SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE
- CNBCPresident Donald Trump’s diesel deal with Russia is unlikely to significantly reduce fuel prices for truckers and farmers, because the amount that Moscow will supposedly export is very small compared with U.S. and global demand. Since diesel is used to transport a broad range of goods as well as to harvest crops, its rising cost tends to trickle throughout the economy, boosting prices. As the U.S. midterm elections approach in November, Trump faces pressure to address fuel prices due to its impact on inflation. More details:
- ReutersTrump says US still sharing intel with Ukraine, defends Russian diesel deal
- SemaforTrump’s Russian energy strategy could backfire, argues @timmcdonnell. Read his full view:
- YahooFinanceDiesel prices haven’t moved, but Trump’s tone on his Russia deal has. The president said Tuesday that the plan is “not a USA deal,” after criticism that included Republican Sens. Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, Thom Tillis and John Curtis. They joined three Democrats in urging him to “immediately reverse course.” The plan starts with about 2.2 million barrels of diesel, and the administration has authorized US purchases through next April. But diesel is still almost $6.28 per gallon, and GasBuddy’s Patrick De Haan said truckers and farmers shouldn’t expect relief anytime soon. Read more:
- BusinessTrump quiere recurrir al diésel ruso para aliviar los elevados precios del combustible en EE.UU. El plan enfrenta cuestionamientos legales y críticas de legisladores de ambos partidos.
- Ny TimesSenators Urge Trump to Reverse Diesel Deal With Putin