US July Import and Export Prices Tumble Far Below Forecasts as Treasury Yields Hit Post-2025 High

A cluster of US economic data released August 18 painted a mixed picture of slowing price pressures and modest output growth. Import prices fell 0.4% month-over-month in July, sharply missing the consensus estimate of a 0.1% gain, while export prices dropped 1.3%, against expectations of a 0.2% rise. The steeper-than-expected price declines suggest easing inflationary impulses in traded goods.

Industrial production rose 0.2% in July, coming in below the 0.3% forecast and only modestly above June's 0.1% gain; factory output matched estimates with a 0.2% increase. The softer industrial reading arrived even as July manufacturing surveys had pointed to stronger new orders, raising questions about whether factory momentum is fading. Against that backdrop, US 10-year Treasury yields climbed to their highest level since 2025, deepening a bond selloff that has put upward pressure on borrowing costs across the economy.

In a separate development, China accelerated the removal of Microsoft's customized Windows software from state-linked users ahead of schedule, part of Beijing's broader push to reduce dependence on foreign technology. Microsoft shares were up 0.4% in premarket trading on the news, though the company had already been facing headwinds in China following earlier rounds of job cuts in its Azure cloud business there.