Market Flux Event
US July PCE Inflation Runs Hotter Than Expected on Headline, Core Holds Steady
The Bureau of Economic Analysis released July personal consumption expenditures data on August 26, showing headline PCE inflation rose 0.2% month-on-month, above the 0.1% consensus estimate and up from the prior month's flat reading of negative 0.1%. On a year-over-year basis, headline PCE climbed 3.7%, also topping the 3.6% estimate and matching the prior reading. Core PCE, which strips out food and energy and is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, rose 0.2% month-on-month, in line with estimates and a step up from the prior 0.1% reading.
Core PCE held at 3.3% year-over-year, exactly matching both the prior reading and consensus. The hotter-than-expected headline print keeps pressure on the Fed ahead of Governor Kevin Warsh's closely watched speech at the Jackson Hole symposium, with traders looking to that address for signals on the policy path given inflation remains well above the 2% target.
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Sources
- NaeemAslam23FED RATE-HIKE RISK IS BACK — BITCOIN, STOCKS AND BONDS FACE A TOUGHER TEST Boston Fed President Susan Collins says keeping rates unchanged requires continued evidence inflation is falling. Without it, she said it could be “appropriate to tighten policy soon.” Inflation has stayed above the Fed’s 2% goal for more than five years. The hidden signal: higher rates can lift Treasury yields and the dollar while squeezing $BTC , $ETH and growth stocks. For investors, CPI and PCE are now the key trigger: softer inflation favors crypto and tech; sticky inflation favors the dollar and short-duration bonds. https:// status/2092549027992834147/video/1 …
- MarketsdayUS #Economic Calendar — August 26 PCE Price Index: July, month-on-month — -0.1% previously. PCE Price Index: July, year-on-year — +3.7% previously. Core PCE Price Index: July, month-on-month — +0.1% previously. Core PCE Price Index: July, year-on-year — +3.3% previously. Personal Income: July — +0.2% previously. Personal Spending: July — +0.3% previously. Real Personal Spending: July — +0.4% previously. Durable Goods Orders: July preliminary — +0.5% previously. GDP Annualized: Q2, quarter-on-quarter — +1.5% previously. Personal Consumption: Q2 — +3.2% previously. GDP Price Index: Q2 — +6.2% previously. Core PCE Price Index: Q2, quarter-on-quarter — +3.4% previously. #EconomicCalendar #USMarkets #PCE #CorePCE #GDP #Inflation #ConsumerSpending #MarketUpdate
- FXStreetNewsUS core #PCE Price Index is expected to have grown at a 3.3% YoY rate in July. Headline PCE monthly #inflation is seen ticking up 0.1% in July. #Traders are likely to wait for Fed’s Warsh speech at Jackson Hole. Full preview
- ReutersThe Fed's preferred inflation gauge is due, but markets are already looking ahead to revisions that could reshape the outlook. Find out why on the Reuters Morning Bid podcast
- fxstreet.comGold eases from $4,700 high ahead of key US PCE inflation data
- MikeZaccardiAhead of PCE.. just a 33% chance of a Sept Fed rate hike @kalshi
- FirstSquawkUS GDP (QOQ) (Q2) ACTUAL: 1.5% VS 1.5% PREVIOUS; EST 1.5%
- AshCryptoBREAKING: US PCE inflation came in at 3.7% Expectations: 3.6%
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- C_Barraud*US 2Q GDP RISES ANNUALIZED 1.5% Q/Q; EST. +1.5% - BBG
- DeItaone*US JULY PCE PRICE INDEX RISES 0.2% M/M; EST. +0.1% *US JULY PCE PRICE INDEX RISES 3.7% Y/Y; EST. +3.6% *US JULY CORE PCE PRICE INDEX RISES 0.2% M/M; EST. +0.2% *US JULY CORE PCE PRICE INDEX RISES 3.3% Y/Y; EST. +3.3%
- BloombergKey US Inflation Gauge Posts Muted Advance, Spending Stalls
- MarketwatchU.S. inflation rises again and stays well above Fed’s target. Rate hike might be in play.
- ZerohedgeFed's Favorite Inflation Indicator Ticks Up In July As Americans Suddenly Start Saving More
- CnbcFed’s preferred inflation gauge shows core prices rose 3.3% annually in July
- Yahoo FinanceJuly 2026 PCE inflation data: headline above forecast, core in line
- CointelegraphJUST IN: US economy grew at an annualized 1.5% in Q2, unchanged from the initial estimate.
- WsjFed’s Preferred Inflation Gauge Remains Above Target Range
- NasdaqU.S. Q2 GDP Growth Unrevised At 1.5%
- ForbesFed’s Preferred Inflation Meter Unchanged In July—Here’s Why Interest Rates Hikes Are Now More Likely
- InvestingFed’s preferred inflation index matches prior month on annualized basis in July
- ThehillFed’s preferred inflation gauge remains flat at 3.7 percent in July