US October Federal Deficit Hits Record $404 Billion, Blowing Past Forecasts by $90 Billion

The US federal government recorded a record monthly budget deficit of $404.064 billion in October 2026, the Treasury reported, surpassing forecasts ranging from $298.6 billion to $317.5 billion and coming in roughly $90 billion worse than expected. The figure represents a 42% increase from the $284 billion deficit posted in October a year earlier, though the Treasury noted an adjusted deficit of $285 billion when accounting for timing shifts.

Government outlays drove the blowout, hitting a record $773 billion for the month, up 12% from $689 billion a year ago, while receipts fell 9% to $368.9 billion from $404 billion the prior year, with the year-ago comparison partly affected by a government shutdown. Individual income tax receipts came in at $284 billion, up just 2% year over year, with refunds of $21 billion rising 11%. Interest on the public debt reached $115 billion for the month, up 11%, matching the fiscal year-to-date pace.

Customs and tariff revenue fell sharply, with net customs duties of $26 billion representing a 22% decline, while a separate figure showed customs revenue plunging 39% to $19.22 billion from $31.35 billion a year earlier. Tariff refunds surged 288% to $7 billion, suggesting elevated drawback claims or duty refund activity that significantly offset gross collections. October's deficit and spending figures both set all-time records for the month, underscoring growing pressure on US government finances.